A $10.5 billion monthly Bitcoin options expiry is set for Friday, and current positioning points to a difficult settlement for bulls. Based on Deribit open interest data, bears retain the upper hand across the most likely closing ranges. For bulls to materially improve the outcome, BTC would need to rise from roughly $68,800 to above $75,000, a move of about 9%.
Bears lead in all three likely settlement scenarios
The current options structure outlines three main price bands, and each one favors bearish positions. If Bitcoin settles between $65,000 and $69,000, bears are estimated to hold a net advantage of about $1.15 billion. If BTC closes between $69,001 and $71,000, that edge is still around $845 million. Even in a higher range of $71,001 to $74,000, bears would still lead by roughly $470 million. In practical terms, bulls need a push above $75,000 to avoid entering expiry from a structurally weaker position.
Large call interest has been weakened by the recent drop in price
On paper, total call options outstanding exceed puts by about 25%. That headline number does not tell the full story. The source material says Bitcoin fell below $75,000 during February, disrupting earlier bullish positioning. If BTC remains below $70,000 on Friday, about 88% of call options on Deribit would expire worthless.
After excluding strikes above $105,000, which are described as positions often tied to multi-leg strategies rather than outright directional bets, effective call open interest falls to about $780 million. Only 37% of that sits below the $75,000 strike. On the other side, put options with strikes above $72,000 total about $1.15 billion, giving bears stronger usable protection into settlement. The article also notes that around $1.44 billion in put options target prices below $60,000, though these are said to be largely linked to calendar spreads and other non-directional strategies rather than simple downside bets.
Deribit dominates expiry volume, while CME skews more defensive
Deribit accounts for about 76% of the total options set to expire, with roughly $4.5 billion in calls and $3.4 billion in puts. OKX ranks second with around 10% of the market, including about $610 million in calls and $385 million in puts. CME holds about 5%, with call open interest near $255 million and put open interest around $287 million.
Among the major venues cited, CME is the only one where put exposure exceeds calls. The source links that imbalance to a more cautious short-term stance from traditional institutional participants.
Nasdaq correlation is another variable into Friday
The article also points to Bitcoin’s 90% 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100, showing how closely the two have been moving together. That leaves room for sentiment around Nvidia earnings and the broader tech trade to influence the final options settlement picture.
At the same time, the source says such extreme correlation levels rarely persist for long. If crypto-specific catalysts emerge, including regulatory developments or shifts in on-chain data, Bitcoin could separate from equity-driven trading. For now, the size of Friday’s expiry remains one of the clearest short-term forces on the market.