Prominent research firm 10x Research released its latest market report, challenging traditional analytical frameworks in the Bitcoin market. The report argues that Bitcoin traders have long misread macro indicators such as "global money supply" and "global liquidity," while the USD trend is one of the key variables affecting Bitcoin's price. The report believes that the widely followed global liquidity indicator is fundamentally misunderstood, and its actual explanatory power is far less than that of the dollar itself.
USD Model: Only Six Sell Signals Triggered, Last in November 2025
10x Research's USD trend model has performed robustly since 2011, triggering only six sell signals. The most recent signal appeared in November 2025, and Bitcoin's price continued to decline in the following months, validating the model's predictive power. The report emphasizes that the US dollar is currently strengthening from multiple dimensions, including the dollar index, real exchange rates, and safe-haven demand. Historical experience repeatedly shows that periods of USD strength typically exert pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin.
The report further notes that this model does not sound alarms frequently, but each signal deserves serious attention. According to backtesting, five out of the six sell signals were accompanied by significant Bitcoin corrections.
Global Liquidity Indicator Misused, Model Provides Fine-Tuned Exit Signals
The report specifically points out that the global liquidity indicator, widely circulated in the crypto community last year, has been misinterpreted by the market. According to 10x Research's framework, the indicator issued a buy signal in early March this year and an exit signal at the end of April, providing precise timing for investors. The team has also calculated the next possible trigger window based on historical data, though no specific date was disclosed.
Integrating USD trends, global liquidity, and other macro drivers, 10x Research systematically analyzed the potential time and value ranges for the bottom of the current bear market. The report suggests that the time window for Bitcoin's cycle low is gradually approaching. However, the report does not provide a specific price forecast, instead emphasizing the importance of closely monitoring the USD trend as a core variable and subsequent changes in the global liquidity indicator.