Swiss asset manager 21Shares released its mid-year crypto market report on Wednesday (24th), revisiting its industry forecasts from December. Bitcoin has declined about 50% since approaching its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 (currently ~$62,300 as of June 24), but 21Shares maintains a bullish view, expecting BTC to recover to $100,000 by year-end in the base case.
Post-Halving Trajectory Familiar, No Capitulation
Regarding the recent correction, the report states Bitcoin's price action remains "still looking familiar," closely matching historical post-halving volatility patterns. Notably, this drawdown is far milder than the >80% crashes seen in prior cycles. 21Shares emphasizes that Bitcoin has held above the aggregate cost basis support of $54,000 and has not experienced the extreme capitulation typical of bear markets. The firm interprets this as a sign of "a more mature market and more stable liquidity."
Crypto ETP AUM at $140B, Institutions Hold Steady
As of May 2026, global crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) assets under management stood at approximately $140 billion, down ~15% year-to-date, with total holdings of ~1.25 million BTC, about 8% below the prior peak. 21Shares attributes the decline primarily to price volatility rather than institutional redemptions. Although U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of ~$3 billion, the underlying BTC allocation ratio remains near cycle highs. New products like the Hyperliquid-linked ETF attracted ~$150 million in its first month.
Prediction Markets Surge, RWA Becomes Wall Street’s New Darling
The report also covers DeFi, prediction markets, and tokenized assets:
- Prediction markets boom: Trading volume reached $57.5 billion by end-May, surpassing half of the firm's full-year estimate. Catalyzed by the FIFA World Cup and U.S. midterm elections, annual volume could hit $100 billion or even $200 billion.
- DeFi growth stalls: Total value locked (TVL) stands at ~$140 billion, flat year-to-date, far below the optimistic $300 billion target. Security vulnerabilities and hacks remain key headwinds.
- Layer 2 concentration: Ethereum L2 networks are heavily concentrated: Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism together account for 83% of L2 DeFi TVL.
- RWA soars: Tokenized assets on public blockchains reached $31 billion (U.S. Treasury tokenization ~$15 billion); on permissioned networks (e.g., Canton), the figure surpassed a staggering $350 billion.