Claims that Bitcoin whales are buying aggressively are facing renewed scrutiny after analyst Darkfost argued that the signal comes from distorted on-chain data rather than fresh large-scale accumulation. The main issue, according to the report, traces back to Coinbase moving roughly 800,000 BTC in late 2025, an event that altered several widely watched metrics.
Why the 800,000 BTC movement changed the readings
The report says the confusion stems from transfers made after November 23, when Coinbase consolidated smaller UTXOs into larger ones. Darkfost said many market participants treated the resulting data shifts as proof of whale accumulation. He argued that interpretation is flawed. The impact was not limited to UTXOs classified under Long-Term Holders, because the size of the transfer and the number of related transactions also affected cohort values.
That matters because charts can appear to show strong accumulation even when the activity is operational in nature. In this case, the report says the data was pushed out of shape by internal movement, not by a wave of new buying from large holders.
Analyst says current market does not show major whale accumulation
Darkfost described the idea that “whales are buying” as based on faulty analysis. He added that current conditions do not point to any meaningful whale activity or accumulation, while overall engagement has dropped sharply. In practical terms, posts on social platforms pointing to heavy whale buying may still be echoing the same 800,000 BTC Coinbase transfer rather than describing present market behavior.
Bitcoin rebounds to $89,000 while $90,000 stays in focus
On the price side, the article says Bitcoin recovered to $89,000 after a rapid decline as US markets stayed relatively calm. For the recent strength in altcoins to continue, downward pressure would need to ease. The piece also notes that if January FUD was already priced in during earlier months, a rebound could begin, though even bullish traders are not yet fully convinced.
Because the day marked the first working day of the year, the session’s close could shape volatility into the weekend. The report says a close above $90,000 on January 2 would help set up a stronger weekend backdrop. It also repeats that the material is not investment advice and that cryptocurrencies remain highly volatile and risky.