Bitcoin indicators reveal why Strategy's BTC sale does not constitute negative news
After Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoins, panic has increasingly dominated market sentiment, prompting closer scrutiny of investor behavior and market positioning. A report released by data analytics firm Cryptoquant on June 1 pointed out that the transaction does not indicate a bearish trend, as on-chain data shows limited exchange inflows and no signs of large-scale sell-offs. As Bitcoin hovers near key support levels, investors appear more cautious, and if market confidence weakens further, the risk of taking profits may continue to rise. When sharing this analysis, Cryptoquant also provided relevant data, showing that although overall selling pressure remains mild, key earnings indicators are weakening. Analysts point out that the Fund Flow Ratio is close to 0.01, indicating that Bitcoin holders have not moved large amounts of BTC to exchanges. Meanwhile, the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) remains positive at 0.27, indicating that investors are still holding unrealized gains. However, this indicator has been trending downward in recent weeks, indicating shrinking profitability and increasingly difficult to maintain bullish momentum. Analysts point out:
"This indicates that a large amount of Bitcoin has not flowed into exchanges, indicating that the sell-off did not trigger widespread selling pressure."
On June 1, Strategy disclosed that it sold 32 Bitcoins for $2.5 million, with the proceeds expected to be used to pay preferred stock dividends. The filing has drawn close market attention to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin-backed capital model, as this is Strategy's first Bitcoin sale since 2022. Sall then promoted the company's issued preferred shares of STRC, but did not directly mention the sale, instead shifting focus to dividend coverage and future financing needs.
Cryptoquant released an analysis report titled "Fear Dominates the Market." Source: Cryptoquant
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Bitcoin earnings indicators show weakened momentum, but no panic selling has occurred
Cryptoquant's chart reveals a more specific concern: Bitcoin's price rebound has begun to lose support from earnings indicators. Although Bitcoin has climbed to the $80,000 to $85,000 range in recent months, both net open interest (NUPL) and market value to realized value (MVRV) have both retreated from recent highs. The MVRV metric compares Bitcoin's market value with realized value to help assess whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.
Analysis shows that MVRV is currently near 1.36, a level still below the readings typically associated with the top of major cycles. This indicates that the market has not yet reached an overheated peak. However, the simultaneous decline in MVRV and NUPL indicates that market momentum is weakening. If BTC loses the support zone between $70,000 and $72,000, investor profitability may deteriorate more quickly, increasing the risk of further selling pressure. Analysis points out:
"Strategy's sale of 32 BTC is not a bearish signal in itself, but it may fuel a broader profit-taking atmosphere. Currently, panic in the market still outweighs optimism. ”
Current concerns mainly focus on whether Strategy's growing emphasis on STRC will put future financing pressure on its Bitcoin holdings. Saylor has long positioned BTC as the company's core reserve asset, but this sale signals to investors that dividends may require liquidity support. For investors, the key question is: if market conditions worsen, will future preferred stock obligations require more liquidity support?