ChainCatcher, citing Jinshi, reported that ABN AMRO said European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde had previously indicated that June would be an appropriate moment to assess the impact of the Iran conflict and update the ECB’s economic forecasts. The remarks place the upcoming ECB assessment in focus, particularly as the institution weighs external geopolitical effects alongside its latest macroeconomic projections.
Inflation Forecasts and the Policy Path
ABN AMRO expects the European Central Bank to raise its inflation forecasts and signal that further policy tightening may be ahead. The bank also expects the ECB could raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in July. According to the report, even though growth in the euro area is slowing, policymakers remain more concerned about inflation than about economic activity.
Under this view, the ECB’s policy focus continues to center on price pressures. The June window referenced by Lagarde would bring the impact of the Iran conflict and updated economic forecasts into the same policy review, while ABN AMRO’s expectation points to higher inflation projections and a tighter policy stance.