A new academic paper challenges the narrative that crypto moves independently from traditional markets. The study confirms that XRP price action still depends heavily on Wall Street signals, and digital assets have not yet become separate safe havens.
G10 equities and bond yields lead information flow
Published in the Journal of Risk and Financial Management in April 2026, the paper by Yildiz Technical University researchers examined daily market data from 2018 to early 2026. It covered seven major segments including top cryptocurrencies, G10 stock indices, tech stocks, commodities, government bond yields, and sovereign risk measures.
The findings show that G10 stock markets, 10-year government bond yields, and five-year credit default swaps (CDS) send the strongest signals. Cryptocurrencies like XRP mostly receive those signals rather than lead them. The researchers describe this pattern as “information flow,” where price pressure from traditional markets often reaches crypto before any reverse transmission.
Crises shift leadership to sovereign risk tools
During abrupt crisis periods, the study found that market leadership can shift. Sovereign risk indicators such as credit default swaps become stronger drivers of both stock and crypto prices, replacing the usual dominance of equities and bonds.
Using Transfer Entropy and Independent Component Analysis to filter noise, the team concludes that despite growing adoption, XRP remains tethered to broader financial conditions. The idea of crypto as a standalone safe haven lacks empirical support.