Cardano’s ADA is trading near $0.26, placing the token at a closely watched technical and macro turning point. On the chart, the $0.288 area around the 50-day simple moving average remains the nearest resistance, while the $0.24 to $0.25 range continues to act as an important support zone. Analysts tracking the asset say the current setup shares traits with conditions seen before ADA’s last major rally.
Dan Gambardello compares the current setup with the 2020-2021 run
Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello recently pointed to similarities between today’s market structure and the period that came before Cardano’s strong move in 2020 and 2021. His view centers on shifts in liquidity after quantitative tightening and the way those shifts have historically affected risk assets. In his reading, periods where tightening gives way to renewed liquidity expansion have previously lined up with major upside phases in ADA.
That puts the focus beyond short-term price swings. Traders are still dealing with volatility, but longer-cycle observers are paying closer attention to liquidity conditions tied to monetary policy because those trends can shape the timing of broader crypto market cycles.
Monthly RSI reset seen as a clearing of prior-cycle excess
Gambardello also highlighted a reset in ADA’s monthly relative strength index, or RSI, after the last cycle peak. In his framework, that reset suggests that much of the speculative excess from the prior bull market has already been worked out of the asset. It does not automatically signal an immediate reversal, but it changes how the longer-term structure is being interpreted.
He also said the liquidity contraction he had expected appears close to ending. If wider economic conditions improve, that could open the door to a new expansion phase. He noted that several major altcoins, including Ethereum, Cardano, and Sui, are showing similar compression on higher time frames, with prices holding in tight ranges that have historically preceded stronger directional moves.
$0.288 resistance and the $0.24-$0.25 support zone define the near-term range
In the shorter term, ADA is still trading below a key technical barrier. The token has not yet reclaimed the 50-day moving average near $0.288, leaving that level as the immediate resistance to watch. A move back above it would improve short-term momentum and could shift sentiment toward recovery.
Below the market, the $0.24 to $0.25 band remains the main support area. Market data shows buyers previously stepped in there after the sharp decline in February. If that zone breaks, ADA could face added downside pressure toward the $0.22 region.
Momentum remains mixed as traders watch liquidity conditions
Longer-term bullish arguments are getting more attention, but momentum signals are not fully aligned yet. The Awesome Oscillator remains slightly negative, a sign that bearish momentum has not completely faded. That leaves ADA in a compressed setup where both technical levels and macro signals carry unusual weight.
For now, the market is balancing two competing readings: resistance from the moving average and still-soft momentum on one side, and a monthly RSI reset plus the possibility that liquidity contraction is nearing completion on the other. ADA’s next directional move will likely depend on whether macro liquidity conditions improve and whether price can break out of its current range.