The American Gaming Association released its Q1 2026 Gaming Industry Outlook on May 7, a biannual sentiment survey conducted by Oxford Economics across 26 senior gaming executives. While the headline numbers appear positive, underlying concerns about prediction markets are reshaping the industry's lobbying dynamics.
81% Flag Prediction Markets as 'Very Significant' Risk
The report shows executive sentiment at its highest level since Q3 2022 with a 21.4% net positive outlook. The AGA's Gaming Conditions Index rose 1.5% year-over-year, and over 60% of executives expect higher revenues and stronger balance sheets. However, the tone shifts when discussing prediction markets—81% of respondents identified sports event contracts on regulated exchanges as a “very significant” threat. AGA president Bill Miller described such contracts as illegal sports betting encroaching on state-regulated operators.
Exodus of Four Major Operators in Six Months
Membership upheaval began on November 18, 2025, when DraftKings and FanDuel separately confirmed they had relinquished AGA memberships over disagreement on prediction market stance. Both launched prediction products thereafter: DraftKings Predictions on December 19 across 38 states, and FanDuel Predicts three days later. Fanatics Betting and Gaming followed suit three weeks later after launching Fanatics Markets. The Sports Betting Alliance then hired AGA's senior vice president Joe Maloney as its CEO, crystallizing the rift. Notably, bet365 left in March citing the AGA's focus on retail casinos rather than prediction market disputes. The AGA now has no pure online operator members.
Lobbying Realignment and Upcoming Senate Hearing
Supporters of prediction markets have organized aggressively. Kalshi spent $615,000 on federal lobbying in 2025, Polymarket $360,000. The Coalition for Prediction Markets, launched last winter, includes Coinbase, Crypto.com, Robinhood and Underdog, and plans to spend millions in 2026 defending the CFTC-regulated framework. Both Kalshi and Polymarket count Donald Trump Jr. as an advisor. The next pressure point arrives May 20, when the Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection holds its first hearing directly addressing prediction markets and sports wagering. Witnesses include AGA's Bill Miller, Tennessee Sports Wagering Council's Mary Beth Thomas, Integrity Compliance 360's Scott Sadin, and former House Financial Services Chairman Patrick McHenry. Subcommittee chair Marsha Blackburn aims to deliver a recommendation framework before the August recess, with Senate Commerce and Banking Committees expected to reconcile competing approaches ahead of the 2026 midterms.