Bitcoin has been swinging around $70,000, leaving the market split over whether the recent chop is a warning sign or a buying window. Analyst Ali Charts said the real question is not whether BTC has already bottomed, but whether this phase is a bull trap or a rare long-term entry opportunity.
His framework combines several on-chain and historical tools rather than relying on a single signal. In his post on X, Ali used URPD, CVDD, MVRV and a long-term rising trend line to outline where Bitcoin could find support if volatility continues.
$63,111 stands out as the first major support
Ali started with URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution, a metric that shows where circulating Bitcoin last changed hands. It is often used to identify cost-basis clusters and areas where holders may be more likely to defend positions.
According to his analysis, a large supply cluster sits between $63,111 and $70,685. That range reflects a broad holder cost basis, which can make it a strong defense zone while price remains above it. He also warned that if $63,111 fails, Bitcoin could move into what he described as a liquidity vacuum, with the next meaningful support much lower.
The 10-year trend line points to $56,000-$60,000
If spot support breaks, Ali’s next focus is a rising trend line that has shaped Bitcoin’s market structure for nearly a decade. He placed that area at roughly $56,000 to $60,000.
He noted that Bitcoin touched this line in 2017, 2018, 2020 and 2022, and each time was followed by a sharp move higher. In 2020, the rebound reached 1,126%. In his view, this zone has historically acted as an accumulation area for stronger hands rather than a short-term trading level.
Deeper downside zones come from CVDD and MVRV
Ali also laid out lower support references in case macro conditions deteriorate fast. The first is CVDD, which currently points to about $47,960. He described it as a structural level where long-term holders have historically transferred coins to newer buyers, with Bitcoin rarely staying below it for long.
The second is the MVRV 0.8 band at $43,647, a level he associates with heavy market exhaustion. Below that, he said a true black swan event could send Bitcoin toward the long-term holder realized price at the -0.2 standard deviation band, or roughly $36,657.
Four DCA zones replace the idea of picking the exact bottom
Based on those levels, Ali said he is not trying to catch the precise bottom. His approach is dollar-cost averaging, with more capital allocated as price moves lower.
He defined four buy zones: Zone 1 at $63,111, Zone 2 at $56,000-$60,000, Zone 3 at $47,000-$49,000, and Zone 4 at $36,000-$43,000. In his setup, these are not just support levels on a chart, but areas where on-chain data suggests stronger value recognition may appear.
Ali closed by arguing that the market’s best entry points have historically formed during quiet and painful consolidation rather than during excitement. His model is built around holder cost distribution and long-term trend behavior, with the goal of identifying where demand could return if Bitcoin sells off harder.