Subran sees sticky U.S. inflation despite weak payroll signals
According to Jin10, as cited by ChainCatcher, Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said the latest U.S. nonfarm payrolls data was weak in practical terms. Even so, he did not change his broader inflation view. Subran said he still expects U.S. inflation to peak at above 3.7%, indicating that price pressures may remain more persistent than a soft labor datapoint alone would suggest.
He added that artificial intelligence, fiscal stimulus, and the energy industry are still supporting U.S. economic growth. In other words, while labor data may point to some softness, broader growth drivers remain in place. That combination, in his assessment, keeps the inflation outlook elevated enough that the Federal Reserve may still need to maintain a restrictive stance.
The Fed may still have to hike in September
Based on that macro view, Subran said the Federal Reserve may have to raise interest rates again in September. His argument is that inflation resilience and continuing support for growth create a different policy backdrop in the United States than in Europe. He described this as the real point of divergence between the two economies and their central banks.
For professional crypto market participants, such comments matter less as a direct trading signal and more as an input into rate-path expectations. Any increase in confidence around a higher-for-longer Fed trajectory can affect dollar liquidity assumptions, risk-asset valuation frameworks, and cross-asset positioning. The remarks are especially relevant when macro markets are closely repricing central-bank timing.
ECB likely to stay on hold after last month’s move
Subran took a more cautious view on the European Central Bank. He said that after last month’s rate increase, the ECB is unlikely to act again. He characterized that previous move as an “insurance” hike, suggesting it was more of a protective or confirming step rather than the beginning of a fresh tightening cycle.
He also said that, based on the current data, that phase now appears to be over. This implies a widening contrast in policy expectations: the Fed may still have room or necessity to tighten further, while the ECB is closer to pausing. In global markets, such divergence can influence capital allocation, currency expectations, and broader appetite for risk-sensitive assets, including crypto.
War effects are still working through the economy
Subran also addressed the economic impact of war. He said the trauma effect of the conflict still needs time to become fully visible, and that the economy continues to bear the cost of war. At the same time, he noted that the situation is now better than it was a few weeks ago, suggesting that while the shock has not disappeared, immediate conditions have improved relative to the recent past.
Overall, Subran’s message can be distilled into three points: U.S. inflation may peak above 3.7%, the Fed may still need to hike in September, and the ECB is unlikely to follow with another move after its latest increase. For crypto professionals, the value of this macro readout lies in how it informs the outlook for global liquidity, rate differentials, and market risk sentiment. Source: ChainCatcher, citing Jin10.