Allium said in a July 3 report that the United States was the largest national source of political market trading on Polymarket among wallets the firm could link to a country. That finding stands out because Polymarket’s global platform lists the U.S. as a restricted jurisdiction and states that users must not use VPNs or similar tools to bypass location controls.
The firm also cautioned that its dataset covered only about 6% of wallets with country tags, so the results should be read as directional rather than comprehensive. Even with that limitation, Allium said the pattern was clear: U.S. demand did not disappear after access blocks were put in place. The report said participation had shifted offshore and outside direct U.S. oversight.
Geoblocking policy and market activity do not fully match
Polymarket’s restriction page lists the United States among 33 fully blocked countries, along with other regions where trading is not allowed. The policy traces back to prior U.S. enforcement. In 2022, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ordered Polymarket to pay a $1.4 million civil penalty and wind down markets that did not comply with U.S. rules. The company later launched a separate regulated product for the U.S. while keeping American users off the global platform.
Allium’s report suggests the split has not fully contained demand. According to the firm, blocking access changed the route of participation rather than ending it. If the pattern holds, regulators may focus on a basic question: whether location-based controls can work effectively at global scale for crypto-powered prediction markets.
U.S.-linked wallets leaned more toward conflict markets
Allium said wallets tied to the U.S. showed stronger interest in foreign conflict markets than Polymarket users overall. Among the top 12 markets by notional volume for the U.S.-linked group, five were related to the Iran war, the report said. The same group showed less interest in election markets.
A separate analysis pointed in a similar direction. In June, Rutgers statistician Harry Crane estimated that U.S. users may account for about 30% of total Polymarket volume by examining sports preferences and trading times. His work described Polymarket as global in its overall activity pattern, but still carrying a sizable U.S. share.
Regulatory pressure rises as prediction markets expand
The report arrives as prediction markets face tighter scrutiny across jurisdictions. Earlier coverage said the CFTC is preparing new rules that could affect Polymarket and Kalshi, with regulators reviewing event contracts tied to politics, sports, and real-world events. Spain has also moved to block Polymarket and Kalshi over gambling license concerns, following similar restrictions in several other countries.
Polymarket said in May that it had no plan to impose mandatory KYC on its main global market. Against that backdrop, Allium’s latest findings add new pressure. If users in restricted jurisdictions are still reaching offshore markets, the platform’s model of running a narrower U.S.-regulated venue alongside a broader global one may face closer examination. At the same time, Polymarket is also dealing with security issues, including a recent $2.9 million frontend theft that led to promised user refunds.