Altcoin sentiment remains under pressure, and the data confirms it. The CMC Altcoin Season Index sits at 37/100, firmly in Bitcoin season. Just a week ago it was 34, and a month ago 53, showing fading momentum. Compared to its yearly high of 78, the market is far from an altcoin-driven phase, with most tokens still lagging Bitcoin.
'This Is the End Stage, Not the Beginning'
Michaël van de Poppe says this is exactly the kind of setup where reversals begin. He leans strongly bullish on altcoins from here. “The markets are approaching the end stage of the bear market… not the start,” he notes, pointing out that most altcoins are down more than 90%. After inflated valuations collapsed, he now sees the opposite: “Markets are currently underpricing the upside of altcoins massively.” He signals a clear bullish stance on altcoins at current levels. For Bitcoin, he is more neutral-to-bullish, suggesting downside is likely done. “The bear market of BTC rarely goes deeper… we’ve already hit that,” implying Bitcoin has bottomed.
Macro and Sentiment Starting to Align
He also cites macro shifts. Lower volatility in gold and oil typically supports risk assets, with equities leading the move. “Nasdaq vol up → more confidence → BTC to follow → altcoins to follow,” he explains. Sentiment is another key factor: “The altcoin sentiment has seen the lowest read… nobody is interested.” He calls this a classic accumulation phase, not a warning.
Why Altcoins Didn't Run Earlier
Benjamin Cowen provides a broader outlook. He argues the cycle lacked a proper altcoin season because Bitcoin topped without retail hype. In 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin topped with “euphoria,” which pushed profits into altcoins. Without that excitement, capital never rotated. “When you top on apathy… there’s just no one left to sell the altcoins to,” he adds, citing tight liquidity and a risk-off macro backdrop.
What Comes Next
Van de Poppe notes the setup is now changing. Bitcoin has likely bottomed, and altcoins could follow with stronger moves after a short lag. “Bitcoin has bottomed… altcoins are violently following… the right time to accumulate is now.”
In short, the data explains why altcoins lagged, but if the cycle shifts, they may not stay quiet for long.