As crypto markets show a modest recovery, chatter about a potential altcoin rally is heating up. Technical indicators on several tokens are echoing patterns seen in late 2019 to early 2020 — the quiet period before the last major bull run.
ARB's Story: 85% Crash Followed by Bullish Divergence
Well-known analyst Michael van de Poppe points to Arbitrum (ARB) as a bellwether. His ARB/USDT chart reveals that after peaking near $0.70 in late 2024, the token bled down to around $0.10 by early 2026 — a brutal 85% drop. Now, for the first time since mid-2025, ARB has climbed back above its 21-day moving average. Simultaneously, the RSI is printing higher lows, forming a textbook bullish divergence. Volume is also ticking up, hinting at renewed interest.
Van de Poppe notes that this isn't isolated. Other Ethereum ecosystem projects — Layer 1s and related protocols — are showing similar technical healing.
Market Still in 'Base-Building' Phase, Bitcoin Aligned
Despite these early bullish signals, the broader altcoin market remains in what analysts call a “base-building phase.” After the heavy sell-off in late 2025, prices have been stabilizing for months. Van de Poppe says this phase typically lasts two to four months, and the current cycle is approaching its final act. Bitcoin is behaving similarly, having spent about 2.5 months constructing its own base. The alignment between BTC and altcoins strengthens the case for a coordinated move higher.
What Breakout Could Look Like: 150% to 400% Gains
If the recovery pattern persists, van de Poppe expects the next breakout phase to also run two to four months, with prices potentially gaining 150% to 400% from recent lows. He stresses, however, that the market hasn't turned fully bullish yet — the structure is just improving.
For now, traders should watch whether ARB can hold the 21-day MA and break above key resistance with volume. Early reversal signs are promising, but due diligence remains essential.