According to BlockBeats, crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr. said on Oct. 20 that Bitcoin fell from $86,700 on Oct. 2 to $81,600 on Oct. 20, for a cumulative decline of about 6%.
He said the market is now at a key stage in a structural pullback, with bulls and bears contesting price action near an important support area.
Structure signal weakens but remains neutral
In Adler’s reading, Bitcoin’s market structure signal dropped from +0.37 a week ago to -0.32. The signal has moved out of bullish territory, but it is still in the neutral zone and has not yet reached the bearish threshold below -0.5.
He said the lower edge of Bitcoin’s trading range over the past three weeks is $80,400. If price stays above that level, the current move can still be viewed as a normal pullback within the range.
If Bitcoin falls below $80,400 and the structure signal declines below -0.5 at the same time, the market correction would formally develop into a downtrend, he said.
Futures market still tilted toward sellers
On the futures side, the index line used to reflect the balance of power between bulls and bears shows buyers above 50 and sellers below 50. That index has remained under 50 since Oct. 17.
Although it came close to 50 on Oct. 19, it did not break through and has now fallen back to 46.
Adler said a decisive break above 50 would be the first sign that buyers are returning. For now, however, sellers still hold clear control, and demand in the futures market lacks enough strength to push prices higher.
Bitcoin faces a directional decision point
Overall, Adler said Bitcoin is at a critical point for direction. The market now needs to watch whether support at $80,400 holds and whether the futures bull-bear index can reclaim the 50 mark to judge whether this pullback is a short-term correction or an early sign of a trend reversal.