Crypto analyst Justin Bennett has released a detailed blog post outlining Bitcoin's potential trajectory. He suggests the current bull cycle could peak between $207,000 and $270,000, after which a bear market correction of 75% to 80% would bring the price down to around $50,000.
In his post titled 'Charting Bitcoin's Next Five Years,' Bennett applies Fibonacci extensions (2.272 and 2.414) from previous cycles to estimate the current cycle's top. He notes that the last three bear markets saw drawdowns of 94%, 87%, and 84%, respectively, with each correction becoming less severe as the market matures. Hence, he expects a 75%-80% decline this time.
Why $50K Makes Sense
Bennett argues that if Bitcoin reaches above $200,000, a 75%-80% retracement would land around $50,000. '50,000 is a psychological number and very near the $65,000 high that lasted six months recently,' he writes, calling it a logical floor.
This aligns with Will Clemente's 'Illiquid Supply Floor' model, which combined Glassnode's illiquid supply data with Plan B's S2F model to estimate a current floor of $39,000. Together, these forecasts suggest a bottom range of $39,000 to $50,000 for the next bear market.
Bennett's analysis comes as Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $67,017 on October 20, 2021, before pulling back 8%. Market chatter about a '2013-style double bubble' has intensified, with analysts split on peak and trough levels. While some envision a $1 million Bitcoin, Bennett and Clemente offer a more conservative bottom scenario.
What do you think about Bitcoin's potential top and bottom in this cycle? Share your views in the comments below.