Bitcoin is hovering around $62,000, and analyst Murphy argues that the current bounce is running into a well-defined ceiling. His framework is based on short-term holder cost basis: coins held for less than one month and less than three months are concentrated around $64,000 to $68,000. As price pushes back into that zone, holders who were previously underwater may use the rebound to exit, creating selling pressure.
Murphy breaks the rebound into three levels. $64,000 and $68,000 match the short-term cost clusters, while $70,000 marks the short-term holder realized price, or STH-RP. In on-chain analysis, that line is often treated as a dividing point between bullish and bearish sentiment. If Bitcoin stays below it, short-term holders remain at a loss on average, and the market tone remains fragile.
The first resistance zone sits between $64,000 and $68,000
Murphy’s view is that this is not a single price barrier but a band of overhead supply. Once Bitcoin rebounds into the $64,000-$68,000 range, a large pocket of short-term holders may flip from unrealized losses to unrealized gains. That can trigger profit-taking quickly. The logic is simple, but the effect can be heavy if enough supply is waiting there.
He places greater weight on $70,000. Murphy says STH-RP acts as a sentiment line and that major trend reversals have historically begun with a successful break above it. Under that reading, a move into the mid-$60,000s would still fit a rebound narrative, not a full change in trend. A reclaim of $70,000 would be the stronger signal.
Options positioning points to similar resistance
Murphy also says market structure at a bottom usually forms through repeated failed and renewed breakout attempts. Price pushes higher, meets resistance, pulls back, then tries again. That process is tied to cost-basis lines gradually being retested and absorbed, while each rebound also unlocks supply from holders looking to sell once losses disappear.
He sees a similar message in the options market. Market makers are in positive gamma near $62,000, which can suppress volatility through hedging flows. If Bitcoin clears that area, the next positive gamma zone is around $66,000 to $68,000. That overlaps with the short-term holder cost band, reinforcing it as a resistance area.
Murphy leans toward a weak rebound scenario
Based on those on-chain and derivatives signals, Murphy says he is leaning toward a “weak rebound,” with the likely range at $64,000 to $68,000. He adds that if Bitcoin unexpectedly breaks above $70,000 and confirms a stronger move, he would consider taking partial profits on existing positions to leave room for any later pullback.
Murphy also points to uncertainty in the macro backdrop. Markets are weighing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while some institutions have warned that a rate hike in September is still possible. With the rate path unsettled, the upside room for risk assets remains unclear.