Crypto analyst Cryptobirb has projected that Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching its cycle peak, which is likely to occur between October 19 and November 20, 2025. The forecast is based on the Bitcoin Cycle Peak Countdown model, which analyzes historical halving events and the duration of bull markets.
Halving Events and Bull Market Length
In an Aug. 14 post on X, Cryptobirb explained that BTC halving events have consistently provided clues about when the top cryptocurrency is likely to peak. After the first halving, BTC peaked approximately 366 days later; subsequent halvings saw peaks occurring more than 500 days after the event. The last halving took place on April 19, 2024, and as of the analysis, 482 days have passed. According to the model, Bitcoin is now less than 70 days away from its next cycle peak.
Historical Bull Market Durations
Cryptobirb also cited the length of each of the last four Bitcoin bull markets to support his projection. While the 2010–2011 bull market lasted just under a calendar year, the 2011–2013 cycle more than doubled to 746 days. Since then, each bull market has exceeded 1,000 days. The current bull market began from the cycle low of Nov. 21, 2022 and is currently at day 997, on track to reach 1,060–1,100 days in total.
“Where are we now? Cycle low: Nov. 21, 2022 (997 days ago). Days since last halving: 482. Peak odds are highest in the next three months, with the sweet spot between Oct. 15 and Nov. 15, 2025,” Cryptobirb stated.
Bear Market Patterns and Strategy
The analyst also noted that Bitcoin bear markets typically last between 370 and 410 days with an average loss of -66%. Based on the model, the next bear phase is expected to take hold in 2026. Cryptobirb emphasized that October and November are historically Bitcoin’s “best months,” delivering the highest average gains and the most all-time highs.
To prepare for the peak, he urged followers to plan their exit, reduce leverage, and take profits while also getting ready for the upcoming altcoin season, which typically begins after Bitcoin’s peak.