Bitcoin may not have reached its final bottom yet, and the market could still need to move below $50,000 before a more durable low is in place, according to crypto analyst Crypto Rover. In comments shared on social media this week, he argued that recent price action looks more like a temporary low than a confirmed cycle bottom.
His main argument starts with liquidity. Crypto Rover said U.S. liquidity remains the key driver behind major crypto market bottoms, and year-over-year liquidity growth in the United States is still negative. In practical terms, that means capital is continuing to leave the system rather than return to it. He added that crypto assets usually sell off before other markets during liquidity contractions, with equities often following later, while the current backdrop also includes rising corporate bankruptcies and growing consumer debt defaults.
On-chain and valuation signals have not reached classic bottom levels
Crypto Rover also pointed to valuation and on-chain indicators that, in his view, do not yet match past cycle lows. One of them is the Mayer Multiple. Historically, Bitcoin cycle bottoms have tended to form when that metric fell below 0.6. His current reading is around 0.67. That is close, but not at the level that has marked prior market bottoms.
He also cited the long-term holder realized price, which reflects the average acquisition cost of long-term Bitcoin holders. In earlier cycles, Bitcoin often found a bottom near that level. Based on his data, it currently sits near $41,000. If price weakens again, that area is likely to stay in focus as a historical comparison point.
Mining costs and chart structure both point toward the mid-$40K area
Another floor signal in his analysis is mining electrical cost. Current estimates place Bitcoin production costs near $57,500. In bear markets, he said, those costs often decline by 15% to 20%, which implies a level closer to $45,000. That estimate lines up with the technical zone he identified on the chart.
From a market structure perspective, Crypto Rover described $45,000 to $50,000 as a major demand zone. He linked that view to the price range where ETF approvals took place and noted that the August 2024 crash low also formed there. He added that institutions and whales showed strong accumulation in the same area.
Possible timing shifts to August through September
Crypto Rover said this cycle may not follow the same pattern as previous ones because Bitcoin reached a new high before the halving. That structural difference, in his view, could bring the bottom earlier than many expect. Based on current market structure and liquidity conditions, he sees a possible bottoming window between August and September.
His conclusion is straightforward: without stronger liquidity support and with key metrics still above the most extreme historical bottom readings, Bitcoin may have more downside to test, and the $45,000-$50,000 range remains the area he is watching most closely.