Bitcoin may be approaching a market bottom if its performance is measured against gold rather than the U.S. dollar, according to Rony Szuster, head of research at Brazilian crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin. In a report shared with CoinDesk, Szuster said the gold-denominated cycle points to a possible bottom around February 2026, with a recovery potentially starting in March.
The timeline looks different in dollar terms. Bitcoin’s latest peak was around $126,000 in October 2025, and if the current cycle follows prior patterns, the decline could stretch into the later part of 2026. Against gold, though, bitcoin reached its high much earlier, in January 2025. Using the same 12- to 13-month pattern, the low would arrive sooner.
Gold strength is shifting the cycle signal
Szuster linked that divergence to macro conditions. Since the start of Donald Trump’s new mandate, markets have faced aggressive trade tariffs, institutional disputes inside the U.S., and rising tensions with China and Iran. Tensions involving Iran later turned into an ongoing military conflict. Global uncertainty, reflected in the World Uncertainty Index, rose sharply.
Gold was a clear beneficiary. It climbed more than 80% over the past year to $5,280. As capital moved into bullion, bitcoin weakened against gold earlier than it weakened against the dollar. That difference is central to the report’s argument. Gold simply outperformed faster.
ETF outflows are weighing on price, but large investors are adding
Spot bitcoin ETFs have also been a source of pressure. Since November, about $7.8 billion has left spot bitcoin ETFs, equal to roughly 12% of the $61.6 billion total. The report said that kind of flow shows fear-driven positioning is still active in the market.
At the same time, Szuster said large investors are treating the drawdown as an accumulation zone. He pointed to Abu Dhabi investment firms Mubadala Investment Company and Al Warda Investments, which added spot bitcoin ETF exposure in mid-February. That leaves the market with two currents at once: reactive selling on one side, steady buying from larger players on the other.
Report favors dollar-cost averaging over trying to call the exact bottom
Given that setup, Szuster said investors should build positions gradually through dollar-cost averaging rather than trying to pick a single entry point. He wrote: “Historically, buying during periods of fear has been more effective than buying during euphoria. Does this mean it's already the bottom? No. But it means that, statistically, we are in the zone where the best average prices are usually built.”