Bitcoin may have to go through one more sharp washout before a real cycle bottom is in place, according to market analyst Doctor Profit. He argues that current buying is arriving too early and that the market has not yet seen the kind of capitulation event that usually marks the end of a bear phase. His projected bottom range remains between $40,000 and $50,000.
In his market assessment, Doctor Profit said major bear market lows have historically formed only after severe failures across the crypto industry. He pointed to the previous cycle, when FTX, Three Arrows Capital, Alameda Research, Digital Currency Group’s Genesis unit, BlockFi, Voyager, and Celsius all collapsed. In his view, the current downturn has not produced a comparable shock, which is why he does not consider the cleansing process complete.
Funding stress across crypto remains in focus
Doctor Profit said the pressure is not limited to price action. He sees ongoing strain across crypto businesses, venture capital firms, custodians, lending platforms, and yield protocols. From that perspective, investors buying Bitcoin now may be supplying liquidity to a market that is still dealing with deeper structural stress.
He also drew attention to funding concerns inside the Ethereum ecosystem. Citing remarks from a former Ethereum Foundation staff member, he noted that core developer funding could face shortages within three to nine months. For him, that discussion reflects wider pressure in parts of the digital asset sector rather than an isolated issue, making developments at major crypto organizations worth watching closely.
Bearish flag on the daily chart adds to downside case
Alongside those industry concerns, Doctor Profit said Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe. He described recent sentiment as stronger even while the technical structure has weakened. That disconnect is central to his cautious stance.
He also said liquidity has built up below the current price over the last 60 days, leaving room for the market to move lower in search of those levels. On positioning, he said he previously entered short trades near $120,000 and again around $80,000 to $82,000. If Bitcoin revisits the $68,000 to $69,000 area, he plans to place additional short orders there.
Near-term target at $54K to $56K before another drop
Doctor Profit expects Bitcoin to fall toward $54,000 to $56,000 first, then spend some time consolidating before another leg down. After that, he still sees the broader bottom forming in the $40,000 to $50,000 range.
He added that Bitcoin has historically needed miner capitulation before establishing a durable market low. Even with that bearish near-term view, he said his long-term outlook on Bitcoin remains bullish. For now, though, he does not see current conditions as suitable for new long-term entries and is staying focused on lower price targets before reassessing exposure.