Bitcoin needs to secure a position above $66,000 before traders can talk about a durable rally, according to analyst Michael van de Poppe. As long as BTC remains below that level, he argues that sustained upside is not yet in place. He also said a move to fresh lows followed by a fast rebound and recovery of lost ground could be read as a strong buy signal. That leaves the market in a narrow and unstable zone for now.
$66,000 and the 200-week average are in focus
Van de Poppe said the price area between two major levels is currently unfavorable for trading. His main objective for the week is to see Bitcoin stay above the 200-week moving average, a technical level that has marked market bottoms in several earlier cycles. In his framework, holding that level matters more than reacting to short-term swings inside a choppy range.
STRC below $100 raises concerns beyond preferred shares
Another analyst, writing under the name WilcosX, shifted attention to STRC preferred shares. In his view, a drop in STRC below $100 is not only a sign of weakness in the preferred stock itself. It also hits Strategy’s process for accumulating Bitcoin. Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is widely tracked because it holds a large Bitcoin position on its balance sheet.
WilcosX described the earlier model as straightforward: Strategy issued STRC near the $100 level, paid attractive dividends, and used the proceeds to acquire BTC. That structure helped support both the funding vehicle and Bitcoin purchases. Once STRC trades below par value, the cycle becomes less efficient and less attractive as a repeatable source of capital.
Higher funding costs could slow future Bitcoin purchases
The pressure comes from the financing side. If Strategy sells STRC below its $100 par value, it collects less cash while still owing dividends tied to that original par amount. WilcosX said this weakens the preferred-share-to-Bitcoin purchase mechanism and may reduce the pace of future acquisitions.
He added that if STRC stops functioning as an efficient funding source, Strategy would have fewer simple options left for adding BTC, including common stock issuance, debt, cash reserves, or even limited Bitcoin sales. According to his assessment, some strain has already appeared: Strategy has suspended direct share sales to the market for the first time and has used part of its Bitcoin holdings to cover dividend payments. WilcosX does not call this a full breakdown, but he said the market now demands annual returns above 13% to support these efforts, making the company’s position more vulnerable.