The U.S. dollar is unlikely to lose its global standing overnight, but the forces weakening its dominance are becoming harder to ignore. Cedric Chehab, global head of country risk at Fitch Solutions, said in a recent CNBC interview that the dollar’s position is being challenged through a process of gradual erosion rather than sudden collapse. His argument centers on three structural shifts: China’s expanding economic power, de-dollarization efforts by BRICS and other emerging economies, and the growing relevance of digital alternatives such as cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
Chehab’s view is notable because it does not frame the issue as an imminent regime change. Instead, he describes a slow-moving but meaningful transformation in the architecture of global trade and finance. That distinction matters. The dollar remains deeply embedded in reserves, cross-border settlements, and global funding markets. But the question, in his view, is whether that dominance can remain as absolute as it once was when more countries are actively exploring alternatives.
China’s Economic Weight Is Expanding
The first pressure point identified by Chehab is China. He noted that China is now the largest trading partner for many economies, and that its rising economic strength will naturally translate into greater influence over global financial institutions and trade relationships. As China’s footprint grows, so too does its ability to shape the rules, incentives, and settlement practices that underpin international commerce.
This does not automatically mean the yuan will replace the dollar in the near term. However, Chehab’s point is broader: when a country becomes indispensable to supply chains, manufacturing networks, and bilateral trade flows, it gains leverage over how transactions are conducted. Over time, that can create room for more non-dollar invoicing, more regional settlement frameworks, and a more diversified currency landscape.
For global markets, the significance of China’s rise lies not only in the scale of its economy but also in its capacity to alter institutional influence. Chehab warned that China will likely “exert more influence in global financial institutions and trade”, a development that could gradually reduce the centrality of the dollar in areas where U.S. leadership has long been taken for granted.
BRICS and Other Economies Are Seeking Diversification
The second major factor is the push by several countries to diversify away from the U.S.-led financial system. Chehab highlighted Russia as a prominent example, saying it has been trying to delink itself from the Western-dominated financial sector. He added that sanctions imposed by Western countries have accelerated that effort, reinforcing the incentive for affected states to build parallel payment rails, reserve arrangements, and trade settlement mechanisms.
Beyond Russia, Chehab pointed to the broader movement among BRICS and ASEAN economies to reduce reliance on the dollar. BRICS includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, while ASEAN comprises Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. These are not marginal actors in global trade. Any sustained shift in invoicing or reserve behavior across these groups would carry substantial long-term implications.
According to the source material, BRICS countries have been working on a new kind of currency arrangement designed to lower dependence on the dollar. Whether such plans ultimately result in a common currency, a settlement instrument, or looser trade coordination, the underlying message is clear: a growing number of states want more flexibility and less exposure to dollar-based financial channels.
This trend reflects a practical calculation as much as a political one. Countries exposed to exchange-rate volatility, sanctions risk, or external financial pressure may increasingly prefer regional alternatives or bilateral agreements. Even if these systems only supplement rather than replace dollar usage, they can still chip away at the dollar’s share over time.
Crypto and CBDCs Could Become a Third Force
The third factor in Chehab’s analysis is one that often receives less mainstream attention in geopolitical discussions: the role of cryptocurrencies and central bank digital currencies. He suggested that these technologies could reduce the use of general-purpose fiat currencies in some contexts, and that such a shift would ultimately affect the dollar.
His warning is not that crypto will instantly displace the greenback as the world’s primary reserve asset. Rather, it is that digital payment systems and tokenized forms of value transfer may create alternative channels for storing, moving, and settling value. If those channels become widely adopted, some transaction demand that would previously have flowed through the dollar could be redirected elsewhere.
CBDCs are especially relevant because they are being explored by central banks as state-backed digital instruments that may streamline domestic and cross-border payments. Cryptocurrencies, meanwhile, continue to present a non-sovereign alternative that exists outside traditional banking architecture. While the extent of their eventual impact remains uncertain, Chehab’s inclusion of both in his analysis shows that digital assets are increasingly seen as part of the broader debate over monetary power.
He cautioned that the world may eventually see less use of general currencies, and that such a development would weigh on the U.S. dollar. That idea aligns with a larger transition now underway in finance, where technology is reshaping not just how money moves, but what qualifies as a medium of exchange in the first place.
A Slow Shift, Not a Sudden Break
Chehab’s central message is one of gradualism. He does not argue that the dollar is on the verge of being dethroned. Instead, he suggests that multiple trends are combining to slowly reduce the exclusivity of its role. China’s economic influence is rising. BRICS and ASEAN members are exploring ways to conduct more business outside the dollar. Digital currencies are introducing new options into the monetary system. None of these forces alone may be enough to trigger an abrupt transition, but together they point to a more fragmented global currency order.
That conclusion matters for both traditional finance and the crypto sector. For investors, policymakers, and market observers, the issue is no longer whether the dollar remains dominant today, but whether the foundations of that dominance are becoming less secure over time. For the digital asset industry, the analysis is another sign that crypto is now part of serious discussions about the future of global finance, not merely a speculative side story.
In that sense, the debate is shifting. The real question may not be whether the dollar disappears from the center of the system, but how much of its influence is gradually redistributed as trade patterns evolve, geopolitical blocs diversify, and digital forms of money gain traction.