XRP may still face one more shakeout before any larger upside move takes hold, according to chart analyst EGRAG. In his latest view, the token has printed a bearish crossover between the 21-day and 50-day exponential moving averages, a signal he says has previously aligned with weakening short-term momentum and a final capitulation phase before a durable bottom forms.
He compared the present setup with an earlier XRP cycle in which the same crossover appeared, followed by a brief decline and then a more lasting recovery. In that prior structure, XRP fell about 17% after the signal emerged. The comparison suggests the market could be setting up for a similar sequence now. Short-term weakness remains on the table.
Falling wedge keeps focus on the $0.91 to $0.85 area
On the current chart, XRP is still trading inside a falling wedge, with support and resistance lines gradually tightening. EGRAG identified the $0.91 to $0.85 zone as a possible support area where price could briefly move lower before the broader trend becomes clearer.
He framed that potential move as a liquidity sweep, a pattern where price pushes through obvious support levels and clears out stop orders placed by weaker holders. In that reading, a drop into the zone would not necessarily cancel the bigger bullish structure. It would instead complete a final cleanup move inside the pattern.
$1.80 and $2.00 are key levels for invalidation
The bearish continuation case is not fixed. EGRAG said a recovery above $1.80 would reduce the odds of another downside leg, while a weekly close above $2.00 would be a much stronger indication that XRP has already established its cycle bottom.
That leaves the market with a clear map: the lower zone near $0.91 to $0.85 is the area to watch if the sweep plays out, while $1.80 and $2.00 serve as the levels that would weaken or invalidate that scenario.
Multi-year triangle projects a possible $8.50 target
Beyond the near-term setup, EGRAG also pointed to XRP’s larger chart structure. He said the asset has been consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle that has developed over several years since the previous cycle peak, with price action compressing into a narrower range over time.
Using a measured move from that triangle, the analyst placed a macro target near $8.50 if a breakout eventually occurs. Before that, he marked $2.50 and $4.20 as intermediate resistance areas that could act as temporary barriers if XRP starts advancing toward the projected target.
The full setup combines short-term downside risk with a long-term breakout structure. In EGRAG’s view, XRP may still need one last sweep into the $0.91 to $0.85 region, while moves back above $1.80 and especially a weekly close over $2.00 would point to the bottom already being in place.