XRP briefly moved above $3 in its latest rally, but the advance did not hold. Analyst EGRAG Crypto says that failed follow-through may mean the token has not yet formed its final cycle bottom, leaving room for another drop before a larger upside phase starts.
Monthly EMA setup is central to the call
In a post on X, the analyst pointed to a pattern he says has appeared repeatedly in earlier XRP cycles. Once XRP loses the 50-month exponential moving average on the monthly chart, price has often continued lower until it approaches the 100-month EMA. That move has historically come with weakening momentum, capitulation, and a sweep of remaining liquidity before a new macro expansion takes shape.
He argues the current structure still resembles those past formations. XRP did break above $3, but it failed to sustain upward momentum, which in his view suggests the market may still be searching for a true long-term base rather than having already completed the correction.
$1.10 is support, but $0.70 to $0.90 remains a lower target zone
The chart shared by EGRAG Crypto marks XRP near a support area around $1.10. At the same time, he highlighted a lower band between $0.70 and $0.90, describing it as a possible final liquidity sweep zone if selling pressure continues.
His projected path shows XRP dropping into lower support, then spending time in consolidation. That would mirror earlier cycles, where the market first completes a deeper correction and then builds a firmer base before any stronger trend develops.
Dollar-cost averaging remains part of the plan
Even with the possibility of more downside, the analyst said he is still accumulating XRP through dollar-cost averaging. His view is that trying to time the exact bottom often keeps market participants from building meaningful positions across a broader cycle.
He listed several levels as possible entries: $1.09, $0.92, $0.85, and $0.70. Measured against much higher long-term targets, he argues, the difference between those prices becomes less important than disciplined position building, liquidity management, and decisions based on probabilities rather than short-term emotion.
Long-term upside targets stay at $7, $8, $13, and $27
While his short-term view allows for a deeper correction, EGRAG Crypto kept his broader bullish targets unchanged. The chart still points to potential future levels near $7, $8, $13, and $27, assuming XRP completes the current cycle structure and then enters a new expansion phase.
He also suggested that any final capitulation event could be followed by a longer accumulation period before a stronger uptrend emerges. The entire thesis rests on the idea that XRP is repeating a historical monthly EMA pattern, making this a technical scenario rather than a fixed price forecast.