Bitcoin fell below $78,000 over the weekend and hit its lowest level since April, setting off a wave of liquidations. The pullback came as profit-taking intensified, liquidity thinned, and fresh buying failed to absorb the selling pressure. The move was sharp, and derivatives markets felt it quickly.
The report said the rally that had been supported by corporate demand was losing momentum, especially the bid tied to MicroStrategy’s ongoing Bitcoin purchases. Traders said that support now looks less reliable, leaving the market more exposed to forced unwinds and derivative-driven selling.
Eric Crown says bullish expectations may have run out
Former NYSE Arca options trader Eric Crown said he has viewed Bitcoin as range-bound but bearish since late October. In his view, hopes for a return to all-time highs, or for capital rotation from precious metals back into crypto, amounted to bullish “hopium.” He added that $80,000 is unlikely to be the ultimate low for this correction and that the recent drop may be only one leg of a broader decline.
That stance now looks more relevant after the weekend sell-off. For some market watchers, the move was not a sudden reversal but a confirmation of a bearish setup that had been building for months.
Options market points to rising demand for downside protection
Options positioning is also leaning more defensive. More traders are betting on Bitcoin falling below $75,000, while reducing exposure to upside calls targeting $100,000. On Deribit, open interest in $75,000 Bitcoin put options has climbed to $1.159 billion, nearly matching the $1.168 billion tied to $100,000 call options.
The gap between those two positions has narrowed sharply. That suggests hedging demand around downside risk is rising fast, even as the spot market remains unstable.
MACD, EMA structure and candlestick pattern all flash caution
Crown highlighted several technical signals that have historically appeared before deeper drawdowns. He pointed to a monthly MACD death cross recorded in November, a rare signal that in past cycles came before extended weakness. He also cited the recent bearish cross in the weekly 21 EMA and 55 EMA, a structure that has often been followed by months of losses. On top of that, he noted a 2025 yearly candle forming a shooting star, a pattern often associated with a medium-term reversal.
He also said Bitcoin has been decoupling from traditional markets since October. While equities and other risk assets stayed firm, Bitcoin kept weakening. Crown sees that divergence as a late-cycle warning, arguing that investors usually sell their most speculative holdings first.
$50,000 to $60,000 becomes the next zone to watch
Even so, Crown is not taking the most extreme bearish view. He said Bitcoin could stabilize only after falling into the $50,000 to $60,000 range. That is the zone where he would consider adding to long-term positions, describing the current environment as a possible value-accumulation phase rather than the end of the broader crypto cycle.
He also pointed to the speculative washout that followed the October crash. Leveraged altcoin positions were heavily cleared, and many traders remain reluctant to rebuild exposure at higher levels. Spot demand looks thin, derivatives positioning has turned defensive, and the market is still absorbing the pressure from the latest drop.