Crypto analyst Caleb Franzen has taken a cautious view of Bitcoin’s recent price action, arguing that improving technical conditions do not yet justify declaring the end of the bear market. While he acknowledged several constructive developments, he said the broader trend still lacks firm confirmation.
Constructive signals are emerging
Franzen noted that Bitcoin has recently turned a former resistance area into support and has also printed a higher high relative to the mid-April level. In technical analysis, those shifts are generally seen as encouraging signs because they suggest stronger market structure and improving buyer confidence.
He also highlighted a notable move in the exponential moving averages. According to his analysis, the 21-day EMA has crossed above the 55-day EMA, a configuration he described as unprecedented in this context. If Bitcoin pulls back, these moving averages could become important support levels and help determine whether the rally has underlying strength.
Major resistance still stands
Despite the positive setup, Franzen stressed that caution remains warranted. He said the current advance has lasted 78 days, but duration alone is not enough to confirm a full trend reversal. More importantly, Bitcoin still faces heavy overhead resistance from the 100-day and 200-day EMA bands, which continue to act as major technical barriers.
As long as those higher time-frame resistance levels remain intact, the broader market cannot be confidently classified as bullish. In other words, a stronger short-term trend does not automatically mean the macro picture has turned.
More likely a relief rally
Based on these conditions, Franzen concluded that Bitcoin’s latest rise is more likely a relief rally within a continuing bear market rather than the start of a confirmed new bull cycle. In his view, only further improvement across key indicators and a clearer breakout through major resistance would support a stronger bullish case.
His assessment offers a counterweight to overly optimistic market sentiment: the recent signals are meaningful, but without confirmation from longer-term technical levels, the case for a full bull market remains incomplete.