Stellar (XLM) could still experience one more sharp decline before reversing higher, according to crypto analyst EGRAG Crypto. In a detailed post on X, he highlighted that XLM's two-week candle closed below the 100 EMA at $0.18, a technical breakdown that historically precedes a move toward the $0.12 to $0.10 macro support region.
Correction Duration Aligns with Historical Bottoms
EGRAG compared the current downturn to previous Stellar cycles: earlier corrections lasted between 350 and 469 days, while the ongoing drawdown has already stretched to roughly 420 days — placing it within the typical range of prior market bottoms. He described the current phase as a "moment of truth," where a final liquidity sweep could shake out late sellers before a recovery begins.
$0.12–$0.10: Buying Opportunity or Final Liquidity Hunt?
The analyst argued that a decline into the $0.12–$0.10 zone would not invalidate the broader bullish structure. Instead, it could represent a classic "capitulation event" that historically precedes strong upward trends. He cautioned that many investors might panic at those levels, but suggested viewing the move as a potential accumulation window rather than a long-term bearish signal.
$0.18 Breakout Could Accelerate Recovery
EGRAG also outlined a bullish alternative: if XLM manages a sustained recovery above $0.18, the probability of a final liquidity hunt would drop sharply, allowing bullish momentum to return sooner. He emphasized that near-term price action is essentially a “wait-and-see” game around that level.
Despite the downside risk, the analyst maintained a long-term target of $1.80 on a non-logarithmic scale — implying roughly a 17x gain from current levels. He reiterated that the overall market structure remains intact, and the next major expansion phase could begin once the correction phase is exhausted.