Crypto analyst Austin Hilton, in a recent video breakdown, argued that the ongoing XRP sell-off hides a story most retail investors are missing. While prices bleed, institutional players are building on the XRP Ledger. He expects XRP to follow Bitcoin lower — potentially below $1 — if BTC drops to $55K or $50K. But Hilton treats that scenario as an accumulation window, not panic. "I never thought I'd be able to buy XRP below a dollar again, simply put," he said.
Institutions Want the Tech, Not the Pump
Hilton drew a line that rarely gets attention. Financial institutions are integrating Ripple's infrastructure, but they are not buying XRP in bulk to push the spot price higher. "Do I believe institutions are buying XRP? Sure. Do I believe they're buying it in mass to move the price of the token? No, that's not my point," he stated.
On-chain moves confirm the gap. The XRP Ledger activated XLS-81 this month, launching permissioned DEXs with built-in KYC and AML controls designed for banks and regulated firms. Ripple also expanded escrow tools covering stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. Hilton summed it up: "Ripple is not trying to win open DeFi. It's building a fast lane for institutional capital."
Signals extend beyond the ledger. Aviva Investors partnered with Ripple to tokenize funds on XRPL; XRP ETF inflows have surpassed $1.23 billion cumulatively; and Bank of America recently disclosed XRP ETF holdings in an SEC filing. These moves show institutions are using the ledger, but not yet for large-scale spot buying.
Macro Drag: Tariffs, Iran, and Risk-Off
Hilton linked the sell-off to forces well outside crypto: the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration's tariff framework, the White House pivoted to impose more, the EU publicly refused hikes, and Iran-US tensions escalated. These pressures suppress price action regardless of what is being built underneath.
With Bitcoin at risk of falling to $55K or below $50K, Hilton expects XRP to follow and potentially slip under $1. He frames that as a chance to accumulate, not a reason to flee.
Regulatory Catalyst: CLARITY Act and the Institutional Pivot
The turning point may come from Washington. According to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, the CLARITY Act carries 80% odds of passing by April, while Polymarket bettors price it at 85%. Hilton argues that if regulatory clarity and macro relief arrive together, the gap between XRP's infrastructure reality and its price could close fast. "Regulatory clarity, improving macro conditions, and continued institutional adoption could help close the gap between XRP's utility and price," he noted.
For now, XRP remains caught between rising institutional infrastructure and macro headwinds. Hilton's point: retail panic selling now risks missing the buildup that may trigger a rapid revaluation once the macro fog lifts and regulatory certainty arrives.