Dogecoin is back in focus after analysts outlined a possible move toward $1.00 to $1.10. Hailey, using Elliott Wave analysis, argues that DOGE is still trading inside an extended correction rather than starting a fresh bearish phase. In that framework, the current pullback is treated as the final leg of Wave IV in the larger structure that has developed since the token’s 2021 all-time high.
According to the analysis, DOGE has remained under pressure from a downward-sloping trendline that has capped recovery attempts since the coin peaked earlier in 2024. Price has continued to test important support levels. Hailey says a triangle formation remains the more likely path as long as prior wave structures stay intact, with DOGE still sitting nearly 30% above the invalidation level.
Support near $0.07 remains central to the setup
The Wave 4 support zone is presented as the key area for Dogecoin’s longer-term outlook. If that level holds, the next upward move could target $1.00 to $1.10, implying a gain of more than 1,090% from the projected bottom. The same analysis also notes that price may spend time in sideways consolidation either before or after any major rally. A straight-line move is not assumed.
Trader Tardigrade points to momentum data instead. He says Dogecoin’s weekly RSI has fallen back to levels seen near past market bottoms. During the 2022 bear market, DOGE posted a similar weekly RSI reading and later rallied about 886%, closing near $0.48. Because the present setup resembles that earlier pattern, talk has returned around a possible move toward the $0.70 region if history repeats.
Low RSI may signal weaker selling pressure
Still, Trader Tardigrade adds that an oversold RSI does not confirm a bullish reversal on its own. It may only indicate that selling pressure is starting to ease. DOGE is now trading close to the $0.07 support area, a level that has previously drawn strong buying interest. Whether that zone holds is likely to shape the token’s short- and medium-term direction.
BitMEX long exposure grows as open interest approaches 1.7 billion
Derivatives positioning has also shifted. Expert CW says long positions on BitMEX have increased clearly since June 24, with open interest rising from about 1 billion contracts to nearly 1.7 billion. With DOGE hovering near monthly lows, that change suggests fresh capital has been entering the futures market.
The rise in net long positioning also adds risk. If Dogecoin fails to clear resistance, leveraged longs could face rapid liquidations, adding to sell pressure. For now, traders appear to be watching two signals above all others: whether DOGE can hold the $0.07 support zone and whether it can deal with the descending resistance line that has constrained rebounds.