Earnings season is moving into its busiest stretch, and all seven of the major U.S. tech giants are on deck this week. On Monday, a sharp drop in oil should have helped equities. It did not. WTI crude fell 7.5% in a single session, but the support from cheaper energy was overwhelmed by a broad sell-off in chip stocks. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was down as much as 5% intraday, Nvidia fell nearly 5%, and Apple used the opening to move back ahead in the global market-cap rankings.
Memory chip names took the hardest hit. SK hynix’s U.S.-listed ADR fell below its IPO price, and SanDisk has lost $170 billion in market value over the past month, according to the article. Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. were one of the few bright spots, rising 2.5% on the day, with Xiaomi’s ADR up nearly 9%. At the same time, Donald Trump kept signaling that the U.S. and Iran were in what he called “very deep talks,” even as a Saudi oil facility was reportedly hit again.
Major indexes finish mixed as oil’s plunge fails to lift the broader market
The main U.S. indexes closed in different directions. The S&P 500 rose 0.02% to 7,413.18. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.51% to 52,210.08. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18% to 24,932.081, while the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.32% to 28,039.211. The Russell 2000 gained 0.62% to 2,948.035. The VIX rose 0.48% to 18.67.
The market message was straightforward: the decline in crude was not enough to carry the broader tape when semiconductors were under that much pressure.
Apple overtakes Nvidia and returns to the top of the market-cap table
Performance among the “Magnificent Seven” was split. Apple rose 1.17%, Microsoft gained 1.94%, and Alphabet Class A climbed 2.13%. Nvidia dropped 4.99%, Tesla lost 1.22%, Amazon fell 0.31%, and Meta slipped 0.22%.
That reshuffled the leaderboard. Apple’s market capitalization rose to about $4.93 trillion, while Nvidia’s slipped to $4.78 trillion, putting Apple back in first place globally. Based on the figures in the report, the gap stood at roughly $150 billion. Apple shares are up 24% so far this year, and the article said its steadier pace of capital spending has unexpectedly made it a relative safe harbor during the latest wave of AI-related market anxiety.
Memory stocks lead the decline while U.S.-listed Chinese shares advance
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 2.23% at 11,554.88. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. ADR fell 1.03%, AMD dropped 5.17%, and ASML lost more than 5%. The heaviest damage was in memory. Micron fell 2.25%, SK hynix tumbled as much as 10% intraday and ended below its U.S. IPO price, SanDisk sank more than 11%, and Kioxia’s ADR also fell more than 7%.
The article traced the immediate trigger to developments in China. ChangXin Memory debuted on the STAR Market and opened up more than 450%, with its market value at one point exceeding Intel’s. The market read that as a sign that China’s progress toward DRAM self-sufficiency may be further along than many had expected. A separate report then said Samsung Electronics was considering buying Chinese-made DRAM to cut costs. Together, those two developments hit the valuation case for U.S. memory names.
The report also said that many institutions were not taking an equally bleak view. Their broad assessment was that Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung still hold technical advantages in AI memory that would be difficult to dislodge in the short term.
Chinese ADRs, by contrast, moved higher. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 2.51% to 6,257.87, approaching its 50-day moving average. Xiaomi’s ADR jumped 8.97%, Baozun climbed 12.8%, EHang gained 7.5%, and NetEase rose 3.5%. PDD Holdings, Tencent, and Alibaba were all up more than 2%.
Nvidia’s financing and guarantee structure comes under scrutiny
Nvidia’s decline was not only about sector weakness. Its credit default swap spread widened by 14 basis points in a single day, a record move, and the article said investors are growing less comfortable with a business structure that combines investment stakes, guarantees, and supply relationships.
Nvidia has disclosed plans to provide financing guarantees of as much as $250 billion for OpenAI’s data center project in Ohio. Added to its earlier cooperation with SK Group worth more than $500 billion, the company is now positioned across the AI infrastructure chain as supplier, investor, and guarantor at the same time. The report said that structure — effectively backing projects it also helps supply — has led some investors to worry that if one link breaks, risk could travel quickly through the entire chain.
Goldman Sachs’ Chris Hussey offered a related view. He attributed the S&P 500’s lack of progress over the past two months less to oil or rates and more to doubts over whether AI infrastructure spending can keep generating returns. On the day, if AI-linked stocks were excluded, the rest of the S&P 500 would have risen 0.8%, outperforming the index as a whole. The article cited that figure as support for his argument.
Conflicting signals on U.S.-Iran talks as a Saudi facility is reportedly hit again
Geopolitics remained another major source of tension. Trump said the U.S. and Iran were in “very deep talks,” adding that he had patience and plenty of time. According to the article, the talks were said to be centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and restarting the nuclear agreement.
Iran’s official position did not match that description. Tehran denied that such discussions were taking place and said it would not allow the U.S. to decide unilaterally when the conflict begins or ends.
At the same time, a key Saudi Aramco oil facility in Abqaiq was reportedly attacked and caught fire. The article described the site as every bit as sensitive as the Strait of Hormuz in market terms, which briefly tightened risk sentiment. It also noted reports that the Pentagon is concerned about the pace at which U.S. air-defense interceptors in the Middle East are being depleted, a factor that could limit Washington’s room to widen military action.
Israel’s prime minister has already departed for Washington and is expected to discuss Iran face to face with Trump. Trump also acknowledged that the two sides still disagree on the details of how to handle the issue.
Fed hike odds rise as Big Tech earnings crowd the week ahead
Rate futures now show a 34% to 38% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at this meeting, up from about 13% a week ago. That kind of swing so close to the decision is unusual.
Bloomberg’s Sebastian Boyd highlighted the tension in the data and the messaging. On one side, Fed officials have turned more hawkish. Logan and Hammack both issued rate-hike warnings, and Governor Waller said the balance of risks in the U.S. has fully shifted. On the other side, short-term inflation expectations have fallen to their lowest level in more than a year, and long-term inflation expectations have also been declining for months. The second-round inflation effects that many feared from oil have still not clearly appeared.
This week, companies representing roughly one-third of the S&P 500’s market capitalization are set to report earnings. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are among them. Morgan Stanley’s Chris Larkin said geopolitics and oil prices may be the biggest uncertainties this week, and even strong results from the seven biggest tech names may not translate into higher share prices if the market keeps questioning the scale of AI spending.
JPMorgan’s team has kept a tactically bullish stance. The bank argues that lower bond yields, a weaker dollar, and solid corporate earnings could leave meaningful upside for the S&P 500. Even so, the article said crowded semiconductor positioning and the Iran conflict remain the two biggest risks.
