ARK Invest said in its Q2 2026 report, The Bitcoin Quarterly, that Bitcoin fell about 14% in the second quarter, closing at roughly $58,544 and dropping below three major technical moving averages. The firm said that setup has historically been associated with bearish market conditions.
Long-term holders kept buying through the pullback
Despite the price pressure, ARK said long-term holders continued to accumulate Bitcoin. Their holdings rose to a record of about 14.85 million BTC, absorbing coins released into the market during the correction.
On-chain data points to seller fatigue
The report said on-chain data is starting to show signs of seller fatigue. According to ARK, the amount of BTC supply held at a loss moved above supply held in profit, and the rate of losses at one point exceeded the rate of gains. The firm said similar conditions have historically appeared near market cycle bottoms.
Institutional demand showed signs of strain
ARK also said institutional demand in the Bitcoin market is facing pressure. It pointed to weakness in both treasury company activity and the ETF segment. STRC preferred shares briefly fell to about $74.57, below their $100 par value, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows for seven consecutive weeks, with cumulative withdrawals totaling about 70,000 BTC.
ARK said the ETF outflows suggest an important source of marginal Bitcoin buying is weakening. At the same time, continued accumulation by long-term holders indicates that supply is being redistributed within the market. The firm added that the gap between current BTC price action and long-term holder behavior has become pronounced, and historical data suggests this kind of divergence can serve as an important signal when watching for a market cycle turn.