ARK Invest said in a new report that Starlink on its own could support a SpaceX IPO valuation close to $2 trillion. The investment firm led by Cathie Wood argued that the widely discussed target range of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion is reasonable. In ARK’s view, that case becomes even larger when combined with lower launch costs from Starship and a vision for orbital AI infrastructure tied to xAI, pushing SpaceX’s 2030 enterprise value to $2.5 trillion.
ARK sees Starlink as the company’s clearest profit engine
ARK holds SpaceX shares through its ARK Venture Fund. As of the end of March, SpaceX was the fund’s largest position at about 17.02%. In its research, ARK said Starlink adoption has moved faster than expected, with active users now above 10 million.
The firm projects more than $20 billion in Starlink revenue in 2026. It described the satellite internet business as SpaceX’s only consistently profitable core division at this stage, while also pointing to a global satellite connectivity market worth as much as $160 billion annually. ARK’s conclusion was blunt: Starlink alone is enough to justify a SpaceX IPO valuation of around $2 trillion.
Starship and xAI frame the next leg of the thesis
Beyond Starlink, ARK highlighted two other drivers. One is Starship. If development succeeds as expected, the report said launch costs could fall from several thousand dollars per kilogram to below $100, opening new commercial activity in space.
The other is the potential tie-up with xAI. ARK said the combination could accelerate the buildout of “orbital computing and AI infrastructure.” According to the report, that segment may eventually carry even more upside than Starlink does today.
Valuation case rests on long-term growth, not current multiples
The report also said SpaceX has already filed confidential IPO paperwork and could list on Nasdaq as early as June 2026. Based on estimated 2025 revenue of $18.5 billion, the implied valuation multiple sits far above that of traditional public companies. ARK’s argument is that the pricing case is not centered on current earnings.
Its earlier model put SpaceX’s expected enterprise value at $2.5 trillion by 2030, with a higher figure possible in a bull-case scenario. The report’s thesis is straightforward: the valuation anchor for SpaceX is no longer only launch services, but also the commercial scale already visible in Starlink and the expansion potential of the broader technology platform around it.