Ark Invest has laid out its 2030 Bitcoin price targets: a bull case of $1.5 million per coin and a bear case of $300,000. Analyst and associate portfolio manager David Puell argues Bitcoin has passed a key institutional maturity milestone — the question is no longer whether to invest, but how much exposure and through which vehicle.
ETFs and DATs Absorb 12% of Circulating Supply
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, approved in early 2024, have pulled in over $50 billion in net inflows in roughly 18 months. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) dominate flows, deepening liquidity and tightening available supply. Puell says ETFs combined with Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies — public firms that hold Bitcoin as a primary reserve — now control roughly 12% of all Bitcoin supply, far above expectations. He sees this trend as a major price driver through 2025 and likely into 2026.
Long-Term Holders vs. Institutional Inflows
Countering institutional accumulation, early buyers from a decade ago are increasingly taking profits as prices hit new highs. “In bull markets, early investors become more aggressive in realizing gains near the top; in bear markets they tend to hold,” Puell said. On-chain data shows network activity has remained around 60% since early 2018, leading Ark to estimate that 36% of Bitcoin's supply is effectively locked by long-term holders, creating a “vault-like” dynamic.
Three Scenarios for 2030
Ark's valuation framework treats Bitcoin as a digital gold store of value. The bear scenario assigns $300,000 based solely on Bitcoin's role as a monetary asset; the base case projects $710,000; and the bull case hits $1.5 million, with institutional adoption — via ETFs and DAT strategies — providing the largest upside. Puell noted that even in a bearish macro environment, Bitcoin's scarcity and store-of-value attributes underpin its valuation, while institutional inflows amplify the price in the bull scenario.