Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom Fund and former BitMEX CEO, made a striking pivot on July 11 via social media platform X, abandoning his previous cautious stance and announcing a full-throttle commitment to the crypto market. The shift came after Bitcoin decisively broke its all-time high on robust trading volume, prompting Hayes to declare the start of a long-awaited altcoin supercycle.
Technical Breakout Triggers Sentiment Shift
Hayes had earlier warned about liquidity risks stemming from the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) refill, but new evidence changed his mind. “I was slightly bearish in my last essay due to TGA refill. What changed? BTC busted through ATH on good volume. ETH is following and will outperform,” he wrote. He then added emphatically: “Get ready for a monster alt szn.”
Macro Tailwinds: Tariff Softening Hopes
Beyond technicals, Hayes attributed the risk-on surge to market expectations that U.S. President Donald Trump may moderate his tariff policies. “Mrkt thinks Trump will TACO on tariffs, so fuck it: Maelstrom Fund is backing up the truck!” he posted. This macro-driven optimism aligns with strong on-chain metrics and suggests that both retail and institutional capital are likely to rotate into altcoins during the next leg of the cycle.
Short-Term Dip, Long-Term Moonshot
Acknowledging potential volatility, Hayes noted that Bitcoin could dip temporarily to around $90,000 if TGA tightening materializes. However, he views any pullback as a buying opportunity within a larger secular uptrend. His long-term forecasts remain bold: Bitcoin reaching $1 million and the Nasdaq 100 quintupling to 100,000 points by 2028. “You will miss out on Bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million or the Nasdaq 100 spiking 5x to 100,000 by 2028,” he warned, urging investors to front-run the coming liquidity waves driven by fiscal and monetary policies.
Stablecoin Adoption and Treasury Policies Set the Stage
Hayes highlighted that rising stablecoin adoption and U.S. Treasury policies are already laying the groundwork for structurally higher asset prices. Maelstrom Fund’s aggressive capital deployment—across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a broad basket of altcoins—reflects a conviction that the current macro backdrop is uniquely supportive for a multi-year crypto bull market. The message is clear: the altcoin supercycle is not just a narrative; it is being funded.