Arthur Hayes, CIO of crypto venture fund Maelstrom and co-founder of BitMEX, published a new Substack essay on Monday asserting that the bull market is already here and waiting for confirmation is pointless. He claims Bitcoin (BTC) has bottomed around $60K early this year, making a return to its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 a “fait accompli.” BTC briefly topped $82,000 on Tuesday and was trading near $80,600, implying roughly a 55% rally from current levels.
$90,000 as the Gamma Squeeze Trigger
Hayes identifies $90K as the price zone where the rally turns explosive. Above that level, sellers of higher-strike call options are forced to buy BTC to cover their positions, accelerating the uptrend. Call sellers bet the price won't exceed a certain level, while buyers bet it will — the clash creates a violent feedback loop near $90K.
Two Catalysts: AI Capex Shift to Credit, and War Inflation
Hayes lays out two supporting factors. First, capital expenditure on AI is shifting from corporate cash flows to credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. He notes the Fed and People's Bank of China are easing financial conditions to support AI buildout, especially Chinese banks reallocating capital from real estate to tech. Second, the US-Iran war forces sovereign states to shun dollar savings for domestic reconstruction and commodity hoarding. Both war and AI construction require money printing, stoking inflation.
“Higher for longer” is Hayes’ label for this combined inflationary force. He points to BTC’s relative performance vs. the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF, and gold since the war erupted on Feb. 28 as evidence the market has begun pricing in the shift.
Maelstrom's Altcoin Bet: HYPE, ZEC, and Next Up NEAR
Hayes also reveals Maelstrom’s altcoin positioning. The fund holds large positions in Hyperliquid’s HYPE token and Zcash’s ZEC, with NEAR named as the next pick. The NEAR thesis — combining a privacy narrative with the protocol’s intent-based architecture to generate positive cash flow — will be detailed in a follow-up essay. “This will be a game changer for the token’s abysmal price performance,” he writes.
Two Scenarios That Could End the Rally
Hayes flags two potential nemeses. The first is a mega AI IPO or merger in the US or China so irresponsible that markets choke, jolting investors out of mania. The second is a 2028 US presidential election where a Democrat candidate runs on an anti-AI platform promising to curb capital expenditure; if such messaging gains popularity, lenders will reconsider credit supply to the sector. The November 2026 midterms might bring a “small speed bump” before that.
Hayes concludes: “It is a bull market now; close your eyes and press the button. There will come a time to sell, but not today.”