BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a detailed analysis comparing Bitcoin, gold, and the Nasdaq 100 in 2025. He argues that Bitcoin's poor performance is entirely due to tightening U.S. dollar liquidity, while gold and Nasdaq have their own idiosyncratic drivers.
Gold's Rally: Sovereign Flight from Treasuries
Hayes dismisses retail speculation as the cause of gold's surge. Data shows GLD shares outstanding divided by gold price is falling, indicating no retail mania. The real buyers are central banks, traumatized by the 2008 Fed bailout and 2022's Russia asset freeze. If central bank gold reserves return to 1980s weight, gold could reach $12,000. Moreover, over 100% of the recent U.S. trade deficit narrowing came from gold exports, signaling gold's return to trade settlement.
Nasdaq Decoupling: AI as National Project
Normally, Bitcoin and Nasdaq move with liquidity. In 2025 they diverged. Hayes explains: AI has been nationalized by both the U.S. and China. Governments direct capital into AI regardless of returns, via executive orders and state investment. This decouples Nasdaq from dollar liquidity. He warns U.S. tech investors may eventually suffer the same fate as Chinese stock holders when political goals override profits.
Bitcoin's Path: Liquidity Boom Coming in 2026
Hayes says Bitcoin is simply riding the dollar liquidity wave. That wave bottomed with the end of QT and the launch of the Fed's Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), injecting at least $40 billion monthly. Commercial bank lending is rising — JPMorgan launched a $1.5 trillion loan program. Trump's order for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in MBS will further lower mortgage rates, boosting housing wealth. Bitcoin and liquidity bottomed together; as liquidity explodes, Bitcoin will follow.
Trading Strategy: Leverage MSTR and Metaplanet
Hayes's fund Maelstrom is nearly fully deployed. He is going long MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet (3350 JT) to get leveraged Bitcoin exposure without complex derivatives. Both stocks trade near the bottom of their ratio-to-Bitcoin range. If Bitcoin reclaims $110,000, these instruments could significantly outperform. Hayes also continues accumulating Zcash (ZEC), viewing developer departures as a buying opportunity.