Arthur Hayes says Ethena yields could return to 8%-9% if basis widens

Arthur Hayes said Ethena’s ecosystem is currently in a slump, but its yield engine could restart if market conditions improve. In a video interview reposted on X, Hayes said ENA has fallen about 99% from its all-time high, while venture capital selling pressure and a weak crypto market have pushed yields lower and left the mechanism stalled. He said a rise in Bitcoin, especially one that triggers large-scale short liquidations, could quickly widen market basis. If that happens, Ethena’s yield could climb from roughly 4% to around 8%-9%. Hayes added that once yields recover, Ethena’s yield-driven model could re-enter a positive loop and help revive activity across the ecosystem. The comments frame Ethena’s current weakness around compressed returns and market pressure, while tying any rebound to a stronger Bitcoin move and a sharp expansion in basis.