Arthur Hayes said in an article titled "Atención" that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is pushing the euro-yen pair lower, from around 185 to below 140, in a move he believes would unleash large-scale U.S. dollar liquidity and benefit Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Hayes tied that view to stress in France, which he described as Europe’s weakest economy, citing government spending at roughly 60% of GDP and reliance on foreign capital, mainly from Germany and Japan. He also pointed to France’s Target2 position, saying it has shifted from a net creditor to the largest debtor, while French bank stocks have already started to fall. Hayes argued that if French banks, which he said account for about 20% of the U.S. repo market, cut repo lending because of capital outflows, repo rates could spike and push the Federal Reserve to expand the scale of its reverse repo, referred to in the PANews summary as RMP, purchases. He added that Maelstrom is structurally long Bitcoin and is making short-term bets on Ethereum reaching $10,000, Ethena at $0.5, and Ether.fi at $2.
PANews reported on Sept. 3 that Arthur Hayes, in an article titled "Atención," said U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is using a series of measures to push EUR/JPY from around 185 to below 140. Hayes said such a move would trigger large-scale U.S. dollar liquidity injection and support Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Hayes links the thesis to France
In the article, Hayes described France as the weakest economy in Europe. He said French government spending accounts for about 60% of GDP and that the country relies heavily on foreign capital for financing, mainly from Germany and Japan.
He also said France’s Target2 balance has shifted from a net creditor position to the largest debtor position, and that French bank stocks have already started to decline.
What he says could happen in dollar funding markets
Hayes said French banks account for about 20% of the U.S. repo market. If capital outflows lead those banks to reduce repo lending, repo rates could surge, which in his view would force the Federal Reserve to expand the size of its reverse repo, described in the source summary as RMP, purchases.
Maelstrom positioning
Hayes said Maelstrom’s portfolio strategy is structurally long Bitcoin. For the short term, he said the fund is betting on Ethereum at $10,000, Ethena at $0.5, and Ether.fi at $2.
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