Arthur Hayes said he is not putting fresh money into Bitcoin at current levels. Speaking on Natalie Brunell’s Coin Stories podcast, he said that if he had $1 to invest right now, he would not allocate it to Bitcoin and would rather wait.
Liquidity, not conflict headlines, is the key trigger
Hayes framed his view around central bank liquidity. In his reading, risk assets such as Bitcoin respond best to expansionary monetary policy, not to geopolitical instability or armed conflict on their own. The source states that Bitcoin is trading near $69,926, down about 45% from its $126,000 record high in October. That pullback, in his view, shows how exposed the market remains to macro pressure and global developments.
He said the current backdrop does not support a major allocation to digital assets because there is still too much uncertainty around central bank policy. The message was plain: without a clear liquidity turn, he sees little reason to rush back in.
US-Iran tensions matter only if they lead to money creation
Hayes pointed to ongoing US-Iran tensions and the risk of a wider military conflict as developments that could eventually push the Federal Reserve to expand the money supply in order to finance government operations. But he drew a sharp distinction between war and stimulus. Conflict itself is not what he sees as bullish for crypto; the catalyst would be central bank money printing that follows.
He said that the longer the conflict lasts, the greater the chance that the Fed will have to print money to support the American war machine. In the same discussion, he added that money printing is good for Bitcoin and that he would look to buy when central banks start printing again.
Without stimulus, Bitcoin could slip below $60,000
Hayes also flagged downside risk in the near term. If no stimulus arrives, he said both equities and crypto could face another leg lower. Under weaker financial conditions, Bitcoin could fall below $60,000, with broader selling in risk assets feeding through the market.
The source notes that Bitcoin fell to the $60,000 area in February before posting a moderate rebound. Even with that bounce, Hayes believes the market remains vulnerable to more volatility as long as macro concerns stay in place.
Other analysts are more constructive, but Hayes keeps his long-term target
Not everyone shares the same view. According to the source, analyst Michaël van de Poppe has taken a more constructive stance, arguing that recent Nasdaq performance is supportive for digital assets and that there are not many arguments left for uncertainty. He sees room for gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins.
Hayes, for his part, still holds a long-term Bitcoin target of $250,000. He ties that outlook to an eventual shift in monetary policy that could ignite the next rally. His current hesitation is about macro signals and timing, not a rejection of Bitcoin’s longer-term fundamentals.