BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has repeated his view that Bitcoin could reach $1 million per coin, linking that outlook to recent U.S. action in the housing market rather than to Bitcoin’s old four-year cycle.
Hayes pointed to the White House move directing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, describing it as a fresh sign that U.S. authorities are still willing to inject liquidity where needed. In his reading, that kind of support keeps monetary conditions loose and can feed inflation, which may lift the appeal of assets such as Bitcoin.
Housing-market support sits at the center of his latest argument
The stated purpose of the intervention is to reduce mortgage rates and narrow spreads on mortgage bonds, making homeownership more accessible. Hayes, though, frames it as part of a larger policy pattern. With U.S. national debt now above $38 trillion, he argues the government will keep leaning on large-scale credit expansion to manage the burden.
That matters for Bitcoin because Hayes sees these steps as evidence that Washington is prepared to keep the financial system running hot. If that path continues, he expects pressure on fiat purchasing power and stronger relative demand for scarce assets.
He says central bank balance sheets now matter more than the four-year cycle
Hayes has also argued that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market cycle is no longer the main force behind price action. In its place, he sees global central bank balance sheets, especially those tied to U.S. liquidity conditions, as the dominant driver.
He added that if Treasury yields rise sharply, the U.S. would likely respond with stimulus on an even larger scale. Under that scenario, Hayes believes Bitcoin could be pushed to new highs, bringing the $1 million target into sharper focus.
Inflation risk and fixed supply remain the core of the thesis
The foundation of Hayes’ case is familiar: when governments rely on extreme measures such as quantitative easing or large asset purchases, fiat currencies lose value over time. Bitcoin, with its capped supply and decentralized structure, stands out in that environment as a store-of-value alternative.
That projection remains controversial. The source notes that many market watchers are skeptical of such an aggressive target, especially given Bitcoin’s volatility. Hayes, though, continues to argue that holding Bitcoin makes sense over the long term during periods shaped by inflation pressure and direct government intervention in financial markets.