Arthur Hayes has put a $150 price target on Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE for August 2026. Based on the source material, HYPE is currently trading near $34, which would imply an upside of nearly 400% if that forecast is met.
In his latest analysis published on the 9th, the BitMEX co-founder used a price-to-earnings framework to value the token. His base case assumes Hyperliquid’s annualized revenue grows from about $840 million to $1.4 billion, with a 25.2x P/E multiple applied to the business. That multiple was benchmarked against CME, leading to the $150 estimate.
Buyback-and-burn model sits at the center of the thesis
The main reason behind Hayes’ bullish call is Hyperliquid’s token model. The platform allocates 97% to 99% of revenue to buying back HYPE from the market and burning it. That creates direct pressure on circulating supply. According to the report, daily burns topped 33,000 HYPE in early March, and the annual reduction in supply is projected at roughly 12.2 million tokens.
The mechanism is simple. Higher revenue leads to larger buybacks, larger buybacks reduce supply, and a smaller supply base can support valuation if usage keeps climbing. Hayes treats that feedback loop as a defining feature of HYPE rather than a secondary token incentive.
HIP-3 expands the revenue story beyond crypto markets
Hayes also pointed to HIP-3 as a second growth driver. The protocol allows permissionless perpetual listings, opening the door for products tied to silver, gold, crude oil, and the S&P 500 to trade on Hyperliquid around the clock. That gives the platform access to trading activity linked to traditional assets, not just crypto pairs.
If those markets scale, Hyperliquid’s revenue base could widen materially. That matters because the buyback model becomes more powerful as platform income rises. In Hayes’ framework, token value is closely tied to how much revenue the exchange can keep generating and redirecting into market purchases of HYPE.
Even the stress case points above current levels
Hayes did not present only a bullish scenario. In a more conservative case, he cuts the valuation multiple to 12x and factors in dilution from team token unlocks. Even then, his target comes to $58, still above the current price cited in the source.
There are clear risks. HYPE previously reached an all-time high of $60 in 2025 before falling back into the $20 to $30 range. Hayes also noted that weaker-than-expected revenue growth could hurt the setup, as could selling pressure from roughly 9.91 million tokens unlocked each month for the team.
His $150 call is built on revenue expansion, sustained buybacks, supply destruction, and a public-market style valuation approach. The argument is narrow but concrete: if Hyperliquid keeps routing most of its revenue into HYPE repurchases and HIP-3 succeeds in bringing more traditional asset trading onto the platform, the token may be valued less like a speculative altcoin and more like an exchange asset tied to cash flow.