Arthur Hayes Says U.S. Treasury Is Repeating Yellen’s Money-Printing Playbook, Bitcoin Could Benefit

Arthur Hayes said the U.S. Treasury is once again leaning on a familiar playbook that, in his view, ends the same way: money printing that supports risk assets, including Bitcoin. In a new essay titled “Same but Different,” Hayes pointed to Bessent’s recent announcement that he would increase buybacks of longer-dated Treasuries. He said the move is essentially the same as what Yellen did in late 2023, when she increased short-term Treasury issuance and released funds from the reverse repo facility. Hayes argued that both steps are aimed at suppressing yields when the 10-year Treasury rate is approaching 5%, while also injecting dollar liquidity into markets. He looked back at Yellen’s late-2023 actions and said they released about $2.4 trillion in liquidity, helping Bitcoin climb from the bottom reached after the FTX collapse. Now, Hayes said, Bessent is facing the same problem. He said the first round of buybacks was not large enough, but market pressure will force the Treasury to expand them. Hayes expects Bessent to gradually increase buybacks and use Treasury account funds. Whether that happens quickly or slowly, he said, liquidity will still enter the market and Bitcoin will keep rising. Hayes also said Maelstrom is fully long and currently holds Bitcoin, Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi. He added that non-full-time traders should not use leverage.