BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes posted a Bloomberg terminal chart on X today, overlaying Bitcoin (XBTUSD, white line), the Nasdaq Index (NDX, yellow line), and the US SaaS software ETF (IGV, green line) over the past year (March 2025 to March 2026). His message: Bitcoin has not yet decoupled from US SaaS tech companies. The recent bounce "might just be a dead cat bounce." He urged investors to stay patient, saying "we are not out of the danger zone yet."
Chart Shows BTC Moves in Lockstep with Tech Stocks
The chart reveals near-identical trajectories: a summer 2025 rise, a joint peak in October–November, followed by a sharp crash in late January 2026. Both assets have rallied similarly in the past two weeks. At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $73,731, roughly 30% below its November 2025 high. IGV fell from around 122 to 86 over the same period. This tight correlation means the market still treats Bitcoin as a high-beta tech asset, not an independent safe haven. As long as US tech stocks remain under pressure, Bitcoin is unlikely to chart its own course.
Dead Cat Bounce Risk: Rally≠Reversal
Hayes’ use of "dead cat bounce" is deliberate. In technical analysis, the term describes a short-lived rebound after a steep decline, followed by further downside—a classic trap signaling that the bottom has not yet been found. Notably, Hayes is a long-term Bitcoin bull who has previously predicted year-end targets as high as $500,000 to $750,000. His current cautionary tone may carry extra weight.
Decoupling Not Yet Here
Analyst PlanB has pointed out that Bitcoin's decoupling from US equities in 2015 preceded a 10x rally over two years. But Hayes' chart makes clear that decoupling has not occurred. Until Bitcoin breaks its strong correlation with tech stocks, any rebound is likely a technical repair rather than a trend reversal.