BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has turned cautious on Bitcoin’s short-term setup. He said the recent move back toward $74,000 could be a “dead cat bounce,” a brief recovery inside a broader downturn rather than proof that a fresh leg higher is underway.
Hayes ties Bitcoin’s near-term path to U.S. tech stocks
His main argument is that Bitcoin has not fully broken away from U.S. SaaS and technology stocks. In his view, BTC is still being traded as a risk asset, which means weakness across the tech sector can still weigh on price action. Hayes said investors should stay patient because the market may still be in a risk phase and has not fully stabilized.
The warning stands out because Hayes had previously kept a bullish long-term stance. Even after the October 2025 sell-off, he continued to back his year-end Bitcoin target of $200,000 to $250,000. That call did not materialize. Bitcoin ended 2025 near $87,500, and it is now trading around $72,500.
Risk assets bounced, but resistance remains overhead
In the broader market, U.S. stock futures were mostly steady on Thursday after the previous session’s rebound led by technology and semiconductor names. The Dow gained 0.49%, the S&P 500 rose 0.78%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.29%. Nvidia, Tesla, Micron, Amazon, and SanDisk were among the stocks posting notable advances.
Reports said sentiment improved as geopolitical tensions eased slightly. Donald Trump said he would offer risk insurance and naval escorts for ships in the Persian Gulf, while separate reports suggested Iran may be exploring peace talks with the U.S. Bitcoin moved higher as well, trading around $72,000 and up 1.18% over 24 hours after recovering from recent lows near $63,000 to $65,000.
The rebound has lifted short-term sentiment, and some traders now look for a move toward $80,000. Even so, selling pressure has not disappeared. The $74,000 to $77,000 range is still being watched as a resistance zone. The report also noted comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Trump’s planned 15% global tariff could take effect later this week, adding another macro risk for markets.
His Bitcoin track record has been mixed
Hayes has made several major Bitcoin calls over the past two years, with both hits and misses. In 2024, he said BTC would move above $100,000. Bitcoin later reached $108,000 in December 2024 and then traded near $126,000 in mid-2025. His thesis around Fed easing and improving global liquidity also lined up in part with Bitcoin’s climb from roughly $38,000 in early 2024 to around $126,000 in 2025.
Still, the misses are part of the picture. His $250,000 year-end 2025 target was not reached, and his latest warning leans on a change he says has become hard to ignore: crypto now moves much more closely with traditional markets. The report argues that digital assets were once often viewed as a hedge against failing local currencies and centralized control, but they now react to tariffs, wars, and sanctions in ways that look increasingly similar to other risk assets.
Long-term optimism remains, but macro conditions are in control for now
Hayes has not abandoned his longer-term bullish view. His broader thesis still centers on global liquidity cycles, with rising government spending, growing debt levels, and potential monetary easing seen as forces that could push Bitcoin much higher over time.
For now, though, his focus is not on a new price target. It is on correlation. As long as Bitcoin stays closely linked to traditional risk assets, the next major move is likely to depend heavily on macro conditions.