BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said he would not buy Bitcoin right now, even if he had only $1 to invest. Speaking on this week’s Coin Stories Podcast, Hayes said he prefers to wait until the Federal Reserve shifts to easier policy and central banks start “printing money” again.
The comment stands in contrast to his longer-term call that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2026. His message, though, is not that the asset has lost its upside. He is saying the entry point is not here yet. In his view, the real catalyst is not war itself but the liquidity response that may follow.
Hayes ties his buy signal to monetary easing
Hayes pushed back on the idea that war is automatically bullish for Bitcoin. He argued that the cleaner way to frame it is simple: monetary easing is bullish for Bitcoin. Until the Fed starts adding liquidity again and restarts quantitative easing, he does not see the current setup as the moment to buy.
He put it plainly on the podcast: when central banks start printing money, that is when he will buy Bitcoin. The stance leaves his long-term thesis intact while keeping his near-term positioning defensive.
Bitcoin near $69,926, with $60,000 seen as a danger line
At the time cited in the report, Bitcoin was trading around $69,926. That was about 45% below the record high of $126,000 set in October last year. Hayes said he remains cautious on the short-term outlook, especially as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran continue.
He warned that a prolonged conflict could trigger broad selling across both equities and Bitcoin. He also pointed to $60,000 as a key level. If Bitcoin falls below that mark, he said the market could see a cascade of liquidations as leveraged positions are forcibly closed, adding pressure to the downside. The report noted that Bitcoin briefly touched $60,000 on February 6 before recovering gradually.
The $250,000 target remains, while other analysts stay more upbeat
Even with his short-term caution, Hayes has not abandoned his longer-term target. He has argued that fiscal pressure will eventually push the Federal Reserve back toward money printing, and that a fresh wave of liquidity would be a major driver for Bitcoin. His current stance is about timing, not a reversal of the broader thesis.
Other market voices are more optimistic. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe recently said a strong rebound in the Nasdaq is supportive for Bitcoin and could signal capital rotating back into crypto. Some market watchers also believe that if Donald Trump and Iranian leadership were to reach a ceasefire arrangement similar to one discussed around Ukraine, that could act as a trigger for a Bitcoin breakout.