AVAX has moved above a short-term descending trendline, putting the token back on traders’ radar for a possible near-term recovery. Chart analyst Behdark said the recent corrective phase may have run its course, opening the door to a fresh rebound attempt. In that setup, the first resistance sits at $10.37, with $11.15 marked as the next upside level if buying pressure continues.
Support remains central to the setup. Analysts are closely watching the $9.20 to $9.00 zone as a possible re-entry area while the current structure stays intact; a drop below $8.45 would weaken the recovery case and keep the broader bearish trend in place.
Wyckoff reading points to accumulation between $8.00 and $9.50
A separate analysis from Brilliantpanicc uses the Wyckoff method and argues that AVAX has moved out of distribution and into an accumulation phase inside the $9.50 to $8.00 range. In that view, selling pressure has eased while buyer demand has started to build, creating a base for a stronger move later.
The assessment says AVAX may be nearing the end of that accumulation process and setting up for a new upside breakout. For now, the market structure looks closer to the early stages of a rebound than to an extended decline.
Long-term market cap base remains centered at $3 billion to $4 billion
On a broader time frame, Vuori Trading said AVAX has built a durable base between $3 billion and $4 billion in market capitalization. That consolidation has lasted for more than 1,600 days, a detail that strengthens the argument that this support area has held over a long cycle.
Using Fibonacci projections, the same analysis points to potential future market capitalizations of $57 billion and $164 billion. Those figures are long-range projections rather than short-term price targets, but they frame the current consolidation as groundwork for more sustainable upside moves.
Digital commodity discussion adds a fundamental angle
Outside the chart structure, Avalanche has also entered discussions tied to whether AVAX could be categorized as a “digital commodity.” The official Avalanche account said recognition alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum as a commodity could improve institutional interest over time.
The team also noted that the classification has not had a direct effect on price so far. Even so, it said such recognition could help market confidence and increase institutional engagement.
$8.80 buyer base and $9.70-$9.80 supply zone define the short-term map
In current trading, the $8.80 area has emerged as an active buyer base. If that support fails, analysts warn that AVAX could drift into lower-liquidity zones, where price moves may become less stable and more difficult to contain.
On the upside, the $9.70 to $9.80 supply region remains a key obstacle. A move into that area could trigger sharper volatility as buyers and sellers compete for control. AVAX has shown early signs of improving demand through the trendline break and a pattern of higher lows, but traders are still waiting to see whether it can clear major resistance and hold that momentum.