Benchmark lowered its forecasts for Coinbase ahead of the exchange’s earnings release next week, citing weaker trading activity across the crypto market in the second quarter. The firm still kept its Buy rating and $270 price target, which implies roughly 57% upside based on Coinbase’s share price of about $172 on Wednesday. Analyst Mark Palmer reduced his second-quarter revenue estimate for Coinbase from $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion and trimmed his 2026 full-year revenue forecast from $6.33 billion to $6 billion. Benchmark said spot trading volume on centralized exchanges fell about 28% in the second quarter, while the total crypto market cap dropped about 13%, leading it to expect Coinbase’s transaction revenue to decline by more than 5%. Even so, the firm pointed to early signs of stabilization in June, when spot volume climbed back above $1 trillion for the first time since March. Benchmark also said the CLARITY Act, if passed, could end up being a more important catalyst for Coinbase shares than a single quarter of results, with the company seen as one of the likely beneficiaries. The report added that Trump had previously agreed to related ethics provisions, removing a key obstacle to the bill’s progress.
Benchmark cut its second-quarter expectations for Coinbase ahead of the company’s earnings report next week, pointing to soft crypto trading activity. Even with the lower estimates, the firm kept a Buy rating on the stock and maintained a $270 price target.
Based on Coinbase’s share price of about $172 on Wednesday, that target implies roughly 57% upside.
Revenue forecasts revised lower
Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer lowered his second-quarter revenue estimate for Coinbase from $1.51 billion to $1.38 billion. He also reduced his forecast for full-year 2026 revenue from $6.33 billion to $6 billion.
The firm said spot volume on centralized exchanges fell about 28% in the second quarter, while the total crypto market capitalization declined about 13%. Against that backdrop, Benchmark expects Coinbase’s transaction revenue to fall by more than 5%.
June showed early signs of stabilization
Benchmark said June brought some initial signs of stabilization after a weak quarter. Spot trading volume moved back above $1 trillion for the first time since March, which the firm said could partly offset the weakness seen earlier in the second quarter.
CLARITY Act seen as a bigger catalyst
Benchmark said the CLARITY Act could prove more important for Coinbase shares than a single quarter of earnings if the bill is ultimately passed. The firm sees Coinbase as one of the main potential beneficiaries.
The report added that Trump had previously agreed to related ethics provisions, clearing a key obstacle for the bill to move forward.
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