Bitcoin is most likely to hit its next cycle bottom in October 2026, according to Into The Cryptoverse CEO Benjamin Cowen. His argument rests on a familiar pattern in prior Bitcoin cycles: the market has usually found a low about a year after a major top. If the next all-time high arrives in October 2025, as his framework suggests, the following bottom would likely land one year later.
Cowen bases the call on recurring cycle timing
Cowen said past Bitcoin cycle tops have appeared with strikingly similar timing, often within a week of prior-cycle peak windows. Using that pattern, he described October 2026 as the base case for the next bottom. In his view, the market should be assumed to follow the same broad structure seen in the last two cycles unless price action breaks that pattern in a meaningful way.
He did leave room for an earlier low. A sharp capitulation could pull the bottom forward to May, but he said that outcome looks less likely under current conditions. Cowen added that if Bitcoin’s year-to-date return in 2026 remains inside the historical range seen in prior midterm-election years, even after adding one standard deviation, there is little reason to expect the market to exit that band early.
Other analysts point to a similar 2026 window
Comparable estimates have come from other data-focused researchers. Joao Wedson, CEO of crypto analytics platform Alphractal, noted that the 2021 cycle top came just 534 days after the April 2024 halving, the shortest interval on record. Applying that decaying-cycle trend, his model places the next Bitcoin bottom between late September and early October 2026.
CryptoQuant’s data also lines up with that general view. Its model places a likely bottom between June and December 2026, with September through November highlighted as the most probable stretch. The methods differ, but the time windows cluster in the second half of 2026.
This cycle’s mood looks different from 2017 and 2021
Cowen also argued that this cycle has unfolded under a different emotional backdrop. The tops in 2017 and 2021 were marked by strong retail enthusiasm and broad altcoin rallies. This time, he said, Bitcoin topped while sentiment remained muted and social interest in crypto was weaker than in those earlier peaks.
He described the move as a top formed on apathy rather than euphoria, adding that the only similar case was in 2019. In that setting, the usual post-top rotation into altcoins did not appear in the same way, and the broader market response was far less explosive.
Bitcoin remains more than 40% below the 2025 high
The article says Bitcoin is currently trading at $73,831, still more than 40% below its last all-time high of nearly $126,000 reached in October 2025. It also notes that Bitcoin’s fixed supply and four-year halving structure remain central to how analysts frame long-term price cycles, keeping attention on whether the current drawdown continues to track earlier market patterns.