Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover from its latest decline, reclaim $125,000 by late 2026 and move on to fresh highs in the years that follow as the asset advances through its historical cycle.
In a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph, the Wall Street research firm said Bitcoin (BTC) would return to $125,000 by late 2026 in both its base and bull cases.
The firm said Bitcoin rose 28% over the previous 10 days after falling about 50% from its October 2025 peak. Bernstein said that rebound could indicate that the current bear cycle is nearing its end.
Bernstein added that institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers are playing a larger role in the market. According to the firm, that gave the latest cycle stronger downside support and helped limit the drawdown compared with the 75% to 90% declines seen in earlier cycles.
Bernstein’s next-cycle base case points to $300,000 in 2029
Under Bernstein’s base case, Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by mid-2027 and then rises to a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029. In the bull case, the firm sees Bitcoin at $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.
Bernstein kept its longer-term Bitcoin target unchanged at about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.
The forecast is based on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycles, which Bernstein links to the halving event that cuts the amount of new Bitcoin awarded to miners roughly every four years. The firm divides each cycle into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown and accumulation.
Bernstein then estimates potential Bitcoin prices across those cycles by comparing the asset with the marginal cost of production, defined as the estimated cost for the least efficient miners to produce new coins.
“We assume that the price-to-marginal cost multiple will behave in a similar manner to previous 4-year cycles,” Bernstein analysts said.
In Bernstein’s base case, that multiple declines from 1.4x at Bitcoin’s $125,000 peak in 2025 to 1.25x at a projected $300,000 peak in 2029, then to about 1.2x at $1 million in 2033.
Strategy could step up Bitcoin purchases again
Bernstein also said a Bitcoin recovery could improve the outlook for Strategy, the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, equal to about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins.
The analysts maintained an “Outperform” rating on Strategy, but lowered their MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing faster equity dilution and an updated Bitcoin cycle outlook. According to Yahoo Finance, MSTR closed at $126.83 on Tuesday, up 3.4% on the day.
Bernstein said continued Bitcoin strength, together with a recovery in Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock to around $100, could allow the company to “go kinetic again” with Bitcoin purchases after selling around 7,000 BTC in 2026. Yahoo Finance data showed STRC closed at $97.15 on Tuesday.
Recent analysis from Regime Intelligence said Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less exposed to a crypto market crash than to a prolonged loss of access to capital markets. That risk, it said, could threaten the company’s ability to fund roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.